Air Force @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff43°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Air Force

3-6 · Power #95

final

Final

UConn

7-3 · Power #87

▲ winner

Closing spread

CONN -7.5

✓ CONN W

Total

64.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 28–36 CONN

✓ CONN (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -8.5

CloseCONN -7.5

Total63.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -8.5

1 → AFA

CloseCONN -7.5

1 pt toward Air Force

Total

Open63.5

▲ 1

Close64.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -8.5 · closed CONN -7.5 · moved 1 toward AFAmodel CONN -9.5

model CONN -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 55% (188 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (279 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -8.5

CloseCONN -7.5

Total63.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 7.5-point home favorite against AFA, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 26–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 64.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 7.4; 61.1 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs KENT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	52–31	W	O62.5
Very close	USA vs GASO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	30–34	L	O60
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	31–19	W	U57
Very close	GASO vs ODU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	17–20	L	U61.5
Very close	UTSA vs UNT 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	48–27	W	O70
Very close	UL vs APP 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	34–24	P	U64
Very close	CCU vs GASO 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-10	34–30	L	U69.75
Very close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Very close	UNLV vs AFA 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	51–48	L	O65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA WWLLW	4-5	44%	3-1	3-2
CONN WWLWW	7-3	70%	4-1	5-3

Venue/role: AFA away, as underdog; CONN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA OOUUU	6-3	67%	3-6
CONN OOOUO	7-3	70%	7-3

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 45% of games with totals 60.5–68.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
CONN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−8.0 →−7.9▲ 0.1#98

CONN−4.2 →−2.8▲ 1.4#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

AFA

Longer bar = better

CONN

#25

Offense

Even

#23

#133

Defense

CONN better ▶

#84

−0.1 #82

Turnovers

CONN better ▶

+1.3 #2

69 plays #40

Pace

Even

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #32	24.9 #74	AFA
Yards / play	6.37 #30	5.45 #65	AFA
PPA / play	+0.28 #16	+0.11 #78	AFA
Success rate	48% #22	45% #117	AFA

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	36.9 #16	33.0 #124	CONN
Yards / play	6.72 #18	7.50 #137	CONN
PPA / play	+0.28 #12	+0.39 #137	CONN
Success rate	45% #44	50% #135	CONN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	5.3 #81	7.4 #89	12.8 #89	7.3 #38	12.9 #1	20.2 #3
CONN allowed	3.7 #38	7.5 #74	11.2 #46	3.6 #23	7.5 #102	11.1 #54

CONN scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	7.9 #28	12.0 #13	19.9 #17	8.8 #17	6.9 #59	15.7 #30
AFA allowed	6.9 #104	5.2 #21	12.1 #64	8.7 #127	12.2 #136	20.9 #135

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.