UConn @ Florida Atlantic: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Florida Atlantic

Weather at kickoff81°F5 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

UConn

8-3 · Power #87

▲ winner

Final

Florida Atlantic

4-6 · Power #108

final

Closing spread

CONN -5.5

✓ FAU W

Total

64.5

▲ Over · 93 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 35–29 FAU

✓ CONN (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -7.5

CloseCONN -5.5

Total67.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -7.5

2 → FAU

CloseCONN -5.5

2 pts toward Florida Atlantic

Total

Open67.5

▼ 3

Close64.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -7.5 · closed CONN -5.5 · moved 2 toward FAUmodel CONN -4.5

model CONN -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 48% (150 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (88 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -7.5

CloseCONN -5.5

Total67.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 5.5-point road favorite at FAU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 48–45; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 93 points went over 64.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 5; 67.9 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU @ MOST 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–22	W	U59.5
Very close	UL @ ARST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	17–37	L	U59.5
Close	USU @ UNM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-4.5	44–41	L	O58.5
Close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5
Close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Close	WSU @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	31–20	W	U63
Close	UNLV @ SJSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	27–16	W	U59.5
Close	MTSU @ LT 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–40	L	O63.5
Close	TXST @ USM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	50–36	W	O60.5
Close	BOIS @ USU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	45–10	W	U63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN WLWWW	8-3	73%	3-2	6-3
FAU WLWWW	6-4	60%	3-1	3-4

Venue/role: CONN away, as favorite; FAU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN OOUOU	7-4	64%	8-3
FAU OUOOU	6-4	60%	4-6

Went over in Q3. Of 137 earlier overs in games with totals 60.5–68.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
FAU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CONN 3–0 FAU CONN leads · 3 games since 2002 · CONN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Florida Atlantic 14 @ UConn 48	FAU -0.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−4.2 →−3.1▲ 1.1#80

FAU−10.0 →−9.7▲ 0.3#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CONN

Longer bar = better

FAU

#21

Offense

◀ CONN better

#74

#81

Defense

◀ CONN better

#104

+1.1 #7

Turnovers

◀ CONN better

−1.5 #137

67 plays #69

Pace

FAU faster ▶

78 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	35.9 #20	34.6 #129	CONN
Yards / play	6.70 #18	5.77 #93	CONN
PPA / play	+0.28 #11	+0.15 #100	CONN
Success rate	46% #36	43% #93	CONN

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #49	24.1 #70	FAU
Yards / play	5.54 #76	5.42 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #85	+0.10 #77	Even
Success rate	41% #84	45% #116	FAU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	7.7 #28	11.2 #21	18.9 #20	8.6 #19	7.2 #58	15.8 #28
FAU allowed	5.9 #83	9.8 #110	15.7 #103	9.3 #131	9.6 #126	18.9 #134

FAU scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	10.4 #6	9.1 #63	19.5 #18	3.5 #120	7.6 #44	11.1 #95
CONN allowed	4.0 #40	6.8 #55	10.8 #42	3.5 #24	7.4 #100	10.9 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.