Tulsa @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Army · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F8 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tulsa

3-7 · Power #113

▲ winner

Final

Army

5-4 · Power #83

final

Closing spread

ARMY -9.5

✓ TLSA W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 17–27 ARMY

✗ ARMY (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -10.5

CloseARMY -9.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARMY -10.5

1 → TLSA

CloseARMY -9.5

1 pt toward Tulsa

Total

Open46.5

▼ 3

Close43.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARMY -10.5 · closed ARMY -9.5 · moved 1 toward TLSAmodel ARMY -12

model ARMY -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 44% (139 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (291 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -10.5

CloseARMY -9.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 9.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TLSA won 26–25 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 9.5; 50.2 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO vs NIU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	48–21	W	O41.5
Very close	NEB vs NU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-10.5	17–9	L	U40
Very close	CSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	24–10	W	U47
Very close	UNC vs STAN 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-8.5	20–15	L	U41.5
Very close	TROY vs UL 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-7	35–23	W	O47.5
Very close	FRES vs HAW 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-12.5	20–21	L	U45.5
Very close	NCSU vs STAN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	59–28	W	O46.5
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	APP vs CCU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	37–45	L	O48
Close	M-OH vs BUFF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	23–10	W	U37

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA LWWLW	5-5	50%	2-3	3-4
ARMY WLWWL	4-5	44%	0-4	2-3

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; ARMY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA UOOOU	4-6	40%	3-7
ARMY UUUUU	2-7	22%	5-4

Went over in Q4. Of 324 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ARMY	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TLSA 2–1 ARMY TLSA leads · 3 games since 2007 · TLSA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Army 49 @ Tulsa 7	ARMY -13.5	ARMY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−18.6 →−13.0▲ 5.6#117

ARMY−9.7 →−5.1▲ 4.6#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TLSA

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#110

Offense

Even

#97

#85

Defense

Even

#77

−0.7 #118

Turnovers

ARMY better ▶

+0.3 #37

76 plays #4

Pace

◀ TLSA faster

71 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: ARMY defense

	TLSA off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #104	22.0 #43	ARMY
Yards / play	5.14 #106	5.51 #68	ARMY
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.12 #83	ARMY
Success rate	40% #107	45% #113	Even

When ARMY has the ball

Even matchup

	ARMY off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #106	29.1 #98	Even
Yards / play	4.80 #126	5.64 #77	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.09 #83	+0.10 #74	Even
Success rate	43% #74	43% #92	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	6.2 #62	5.6 #113	11.8 #97	5.0 #85	5.4 #102	10.4 #103
ARMY allowed	5.7 #77	4.9 #16	10.6 #37	3.9 #30	6.1 #63	10.0 #43

ARMY scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	3.1 #126	6.3 #104	9.4 #117	6.1 #62	6.4 #75	12.6 #69
TLSA allowed	5.4 #68	9.4 #104	14.8 #95	6.2 #94	7.4 #101	13.6 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.