Oregon State @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Tulsa

Weather at kickoff78°F6 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

2-8 · Power #100

final

Final

Tulsa

2-7 · Power #113

▲ winner

Closing spread

TLSA -1.5

✓ TLSA W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 26–26 TLSA

✓ TLSA (52%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTLSA -1.5

CloseTLSA -1.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTLSA -1.5

no move

CloseTLSA -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TLSA -1.5 · unchangedmodel ORST -3.5

model ORST -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (184 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTLSA -1.5

CloseTLSA -1.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TLSA as a 1.5-point home favorite against ORST, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TLSA won 31–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.9 against an average line of 2.1; 56.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEM vs FAU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	18–15	W	U50.5
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	APP vs ORST 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	27–23	W	U53.5
Very close	ARST vs ULM 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–21	W	U51.5
Very close	STAN vs SJSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	30–29	L	O49.5
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Very close	GAST vs CCU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-0.5	27–48	L	O53
Very close	NMSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Very close	EMU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-1	20–37	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST LLWWL	4-6	40%	1-2	3-4
TLSA LLWWL	4-5	44%	2-2	1-1

Venue/role: ORST away, as underdog; TLSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST UOOUU	5-5	50%	2-8
TLSA UUOOO	4-5	44%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TLSA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST−5.2 →−8.2▼ 3.0#100

TLSA−18.6 →−14.9▲ 3.7#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ORST

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#98

Offense

◀ ORST better

#115

#77

Defense

◀ ORST better

#100

−0.9 #127

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #121

70 plays #35

Pace

TLSA faster ▶

77 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	19.6 #122	30.8 #114	Even
Yards / play	5.17 #102	5.78 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #113	+0.12 #83	TLSA
Success rate	44% #54	45% #108	ORST

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: ORST defense

	TLSA off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #108	29.0 #98	Even
Yards / play	5.00 #116	5.94 #105	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #125	+0.12 #84	ORST
Success rate	39% #112	37% #21	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	3.3 #126	5.0 #120	8.3 #129	4.3 #106	7.0 #59	11.3 #89
TLSA allowed	6.0 #84	10.4 #117	16.4 #113	6.9 #105	6.7 #73	13.6 #99

TLSA scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	5.3 #83	5.9 #111	11.2 #104	4.8 #93	5.2 #102	10.0 #109
ORST allowed	7.7 #120	8.8 #100	16.5 #114	5.1 #57	7.1 #87	12.2 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.