Oregon State @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at App State

Weather at kickoff66°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

0-5 · Power #100

final

Final

App State

2-2 · Power #115

▲ winner

Closing spread

APP -2.5

✓ APP W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 27–30 APP

✓ APP (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -1.5

CloseAPP -2.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -1.5

4 → APP

CloseAPP -2.5

4 pts toward App State

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -1.5 · closed APP -2.5 · moved 4 toward APPmodel APP -3

model APP -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (248 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 42% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -1.5

CloseAPP -2.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 2.5-point home favorite against ORST, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 27–23; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 2.6; 54.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MASS vs CONN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	18–31	L	U50.75
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Close	STAN vs SJSU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	30–29	L	O49.5
Close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Close	GAST vs CCU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-0.5	27–48	L	O53
Close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Close	MRSH vs APP 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-3	52–37	W	O56.5
Close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-2.75	31–27	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	2-2
APP WLLL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: ORST away, as underdog; APP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST OOUUO	3-2	60%	0-5
APP –UOO	2-1	67%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 2. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
APP	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ORST 0–1 APP APP leads · 1 game since 2025 · APP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST−5.2 →−6.9▼ 1.7#91

APP−6.4 →−9.8▼ 3.4#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ORST

Longer bar = better

APP

#110

Offense

APP better ▶

#86

#116

Defense

APP better ▶

#76

−0.6 #114

Turnovers

◀ ORST better

−1.8 #136

68 plays #46

Pace

APP faster ▶

76 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: APP defense

	ORST off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	17.4 #123	27.3 #98	APP
Yards / play	4.87 #126	4.97 #46	APP
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.16 #96	Even
Success rate	42% #92	40% #64	APP

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #98	36.6 #130	APP
Yards / play	5.77 #76	6.66 #127	APP
PPA / play	+0.02 #115	+0.24 #121	Even
Success rate	45% #55	42% #86	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	4.0 #110	3.8 #128	7.8 #123	3.0 #123	6.6 #79	9.6 #108
APP allowed	6.0 #91	6.5 #60	12.5 #77	4.0 #47	10.8 #132	14.8 #115

APP scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.3 #90	6.0 #106	11.3 #108	6.8 #58	4.5 #108	11.3 #89
ORST allowed	8.4 #119	10.8 #120	19.2 #121	5.4 #76	11.4 #133	16.8 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.