App State @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Boise State

Weather at kickoff79°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

App State

2-1 · Power #115

final

Final

Boise State

2-1 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -17.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 22–39 BOIS

✓ BOIS (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -16.5

CloseBOIS -17.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -16.5

1 → BOIS

CloseBOIS -17.5

1 pt toward Boise State

Total

Open61.5

▼ 2

Close59.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -16.5 · closed BOIS -17.5 · moved 1 toward BOISmodel BOIS -16

model BOIS -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 50% (105 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (180 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -16.5

CloseBOIS -17.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 17.5-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 47–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 59.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 27.4 against an average line of 16.3; 63.2 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs USF 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-17.5	42–27	L	O59
Close	UL vs ARST 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & total	-14	55–19	W	O60
Close	MEM vs UAB 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	53–18	W	O62
Close	ORE vs STAN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-17.5	45–27	W	O63
Close	WAKE vs ARMY 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-16	45–10	W	U65.5
Close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & team ratings	-13.5	45–10	W	U61
Close	UCF vs HOU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-15.5	27–13	L	U61.25
Close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-14	43–37	L	O56
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	WAKE vs BC 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-20	43–15	W	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	—
BOIS LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP –UO	1-1	50%	2-1
BOIS UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 291 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-7 22%
BOIS	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−6.4 →−7.4▼ 1.0#91

BOIS+6.0 →+3.7▼ 2.3#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

APP

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#71

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#30

#59

Defense

◀ APP better

#85

−1.0 #124

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

−0.3 #94

82 plays #2

Pace

◀ APP faster

71 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #88	28.3 #103	Even
Yards / play	6.36 #45	6.02 #110	APP
PPA / play	+0.03 #114	+0.15 #95	Even
Success rate	48% #38	36% #33	Even

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #46	20.7 #58	Even
Yards / play	7.58 #13	4.60 #35	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.32 #22	+0.11 #86	BOIS
Success rate	48% #40	39% #58	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

APP scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	7.0 #57	5.7 #110	12.7 #92	6.7 #69	6.0 #84	12.7 #80
BOIS allowed	2.3 #27	8.0 #89	10.3 #55	8.0 #121	10.0 #125	18.0 #131

BOIS scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	13.7 #4	5.7 #110	19.3 #36	7.0 #54	9.3 #31	16.3 #43
APP allowed	3.3 #47	5.3 #42	8.7 #40	2.3 #22	9.7 #123	12.0 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.