Hawai'i @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F12 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

3-2 · Power #90

▲ winner

Final

Air Force

1-2 · Power #95

final

Closing spread

AFA -6.5

✓ HAW W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 20–27 AFA

✗ AFA (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -4.5

CloseAFA -6.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAFA -4.5

2 → AFA

CloseAFA -6.5

2 pts toward Air Force

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AFA -4.5 · closed AFA -6.5 · moved 2 toward AFAmodel AFA -11

model AFA -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (177 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (174 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -4.5

CloseAFA -6.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 6.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 44–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 7.3; 56.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	26–18	W	U55.5
Very close	USF vs CLT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	48–14	W	O56.75
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW WLWLW	3-2	60%	0-1	1-1
AFA WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: HAW away, as underdog; AFA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW UUOUU	1-4	20%	3-2
AFA OOO	3-0	100%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 498 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
AFA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HAW 1–0 AFA HAW leads · 1 game since 2023 · HAW has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Air Force 13 @ Hawai'i 27	AFA -20	HAW W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−11.4 →−10.0▲ 1.4#107

AFA−8.0 →−7.9▲ 0.1#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

HAW

Longer bar = better

AFA

#119

Offense

AFA better ▶

#33

#43

Defense

◀ HAW better

#133

−1.6 #132

Turnovers

AFA better ▶

−0.3 #93

73 plays #17

Pace

Even

73 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #101	37.0 #129	HAW
Yards / play	4.60 #130	7.56 #137	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #130	+0.46 #137	Even
Success rate	38% #113	48% #128	Even

When AFA has the ball

Even matchup

	AFA off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #32	21.2 #59	AFA
Yards / play	6.32 #47	4.54 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #24	0.00 #41	Even
Success rate	50% #28	38% #40	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	3.4 #115	8.6 #75	12.0 #98	3.0 #122	7.0 #63	10.0 #106
AFA allowed	7.0 #103	7.0 #73	14.0 #95	12.7 #136	10.3 #128	23.0 #135

AFA scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	7.0 #59	10.3 #46	17.3 #54	10.0 #17	11.3 #10	21.3 #8
HAW allowed	4.0 #57	4.6 #27	8.6 #39	6.0 #88	6.6 #77	12.6 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.