Utah State @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 11:59 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F8 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

3-2 · Power #86

final

Final

Hawai'i

4-2 · Power #90

▲ winner

Closing spread

USU -1.5

✓ HAW W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 29–28 HAW

✗ USU (53%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHAW -1.5

CloseUSU -1.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHAW -1.5

3 → USU

CloseUSU -1.5

3 pts toward Utah State

Total

Open58.5

▼ 1

Close57.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HAW -1.5 · closed USU -1.5 · moved 3 toward USUmodel HAW -1.5

model HAW -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (138 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (188 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHAW -1.5

CloseUSU -1.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 1.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 44–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 3.2; 55.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5
Close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Close	UNM @ HAW 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	30–38	L	O61.5
Close	WSU @ FRES 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	25–17	W	U60.5
Close	CSU @ USU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	24–44	L	O62
Close	UTSA @ CSU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & team ratings	-5	17–16	L	U58.5
Close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Close	GASO @ ODU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-1	19–47	L	O51.5
Close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & team ratings	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	2-0
HAW LWLWW	4-2	67%	3-1	2-1

Venue/role: USU away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
HAW UOUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 419 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	6-4 60%	9-1 90%	7-3 70%
HAW	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USU 1–0 HAW USU leads · 1 game since 2023 · USU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Hawai'i 10 @ Utah State 55	HAW -2.5	USU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−10.4 →−6.3▲ 4.1#86

HAW−11.4 →−9.4▲ 2.0#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

USU

Longer bar = better

HAW

#38

Offense

◀ USU better

#106

#110

Defense

HAW better ▶

#57

+0.4 #49

Turnovers

◀ USU better

−1.2 #131

64 plays #104

Pace

HAW faster ▶

74 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Even matchup

	USU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #27	23.5 #67	USU
Yards / play	6.55 #29	5.33 #57	USU
PPA / play	+0.23 #33	+0.06 #53	Even
Success rate	44% #62	40% #49	Even

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #86	30.4 #117	HAW
Yards / play	5.00 #117	5.61 #85	USU
PPA / play	+0.04 #112	+0.20 #115	Even
Success rate	40% #108	47% #123	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	8.6 #27	10.4 #42	19.0 #33	10.2 #10	7.2 #64	17.4 #25
HAW allowed	4.5 #57	3.8 #15	8.3 #27	6.2 #91	9.0 #126	15.2 #121

HAW scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	5.2 #83	7.7 #88	12.8 #91	3.7 #116	9.2 #29	12.8 #71
USU allowed	4.8 #65	12.8 #135	17.6 #118	6.0 #87	6.8 #83	12.8 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.