Hawai'i @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F6 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Hawai'i

5-2 · Power #90

▲ winner

Final

Colorado State

2-4 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

CSU -2.5

✓ HAW W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 23–26 CSU

✗ CSU (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHAW -1.5

CloseCSU -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHAW -1.5

4 → CSU

CloseCSU -2.5

4 pts toward Colorado State

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HAW -1.5 · closed CSU -2.5 · moved 4 toward CSUmodel CSU -9.5

model CSU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (262 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (133 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHAW -1.5

CloseCSU -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 31–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 53.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 2.7; 62 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Very close	CSU vs SJSU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	31–24	W	U55.5
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Close	AFA vs HAW 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	35–44	L	O52.5
Close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Close	UTEP vs UNLV 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	28–45	L	O49.5
Close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-1	35–31	W	O51
Close	LIB vs WKU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-1	38–21	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW WLWWW	5-2	71%	1-1	3-1
CSU LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	0-2

Venue/role: HAW away, as underdog; CSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW OUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2
CSU UUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
CSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HAW 1–0 CSU HAW leads · 1 game since 2023 · HAW has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Colorado State 24 @ Hawai'i 27	CSU -5.5	HAW W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−11.4 →−8.6▲ 2.8#103

CSU−6.9 →−7.0▼ 0.1#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

HAW

Longer bar = better

CSU

#96

Offense

Even

#87

#61

Defense

◀ HAW better

#94

−0.9 #127

Turnovers

CSU better ▶

+0.3 #53

75 plays #9

Pace

◀ HAW faster

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #74	26.3 #84	Even
Yards / play	5.25 #104	6.02 #111	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #108	+0.11 #74	CSU
Success rate	41% #99	45% #106	Even

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: HAW defense

	CSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #106	23.9 #68	HAW
Yards / play	5.30 #99	5.53 #76	HAW
PPA / play	+0.14 #70	+0.07 #53	Even
Success rate	43% #72	40% #45	HAW

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	5.9 #73	8.6 #77	14.4 #76	3.6 #117	10.3 #14	13.9 #56
CSU allowed	5.2 #68	10.8 #119	16.0 #107	6.3 #95	4.0 #25	10.3 #48

CSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	4.0 #107	6.8 #101	10.8 #111	3.5 #119	8.0 #47	11.5 #90
HAW allowed	4.3 #48	5.7 #40	10.0 #38	6.1 #91	7.7 #102	13.9 #100

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.