Georgia State @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Georgia Southern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F9 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

1-5 · Power #125

final

Final

Georgia Southern

2-4 · Power #105

▲ winner

Closing spread

GASO -6.5

✓ GASO W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 27–33 GASO

✓ GASO (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -6.5

CloseGASO -6.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGASO -6.5

no move

CloseGASO -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GASO -6.5 · unchangedmodel GASO -7

model GASO -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (196 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -6.5

CloseGASO -6.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GASO as a 6.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 41–24; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 4.9; 55 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNM vs WYO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	45–49	L	O60.5
Very close	USF vs CLT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	48–14	W	O56.75
Very close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Very close	WKU vs MTSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	31–10	W	U60
Very close	KENN vs MTSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	24–16	W	U54.5
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Very close	GAST vs ARST 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	20–27	L	U59.5
Very close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-3	48–26	W	O55
Close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-2	1-4
GASO LWWLL	2-4	33%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; GASO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5
GASO OOOUO	5-1	83%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 376 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
GASO	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

GAST 0–2 GASO GASO leads · 2 games since 2023 · GASO has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Georgia Southern 38 @ Georgia State 21	GAST -3.5	GASO W
Oct 26 2023	Georgia State 27 @ Georgia Southern 44	Pick’em	GASO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−9.1 →−15.9▼ 6.8#127

GASO−5.7 →−12.0▼ 6.3#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

GAST

Longer bar = better

GASO

#112

Offense

GASO better ▶

#72

#128

Defense

Even

#133

−0.7 #115

Turnovers

GASO better ▶

0.0 #75

66 plays #74

Pace

Even

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #123	37.5 #132	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #110	6.78 #134	GAST
PPA / play	+0.08 #97	+0.30 #134	GAST
Success rate	39% #116	49% #132	Even

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: GASO offense

	GASO off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #76	41.2 #136	GASO
Yards / play	5.37 #95	6.46 #128	GASO
PPA / play	+0.15 #61	+0.22 #123	GASO
Success rate	45% #55	47% #125	GASO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	5.5 #78	4.8 #119	10.3 #114	4.5 #97	3.2 #127	7.7 #126
GASO allowed	11.0 #133	10.8 #119	21.8 #134	10.5 #129	5.2 #44	15.7 #125

GASO scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	7.3 #48	6.8 #101	14.2 #81	7.0 #51	6.3 #76	13.3 #64
GAST allowed	7.0 #106	11.0 #121	18.0 #124	12.2 #136	11.0 #134	23.2 #135

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.