Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F12 mphgusts 23Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Georgia Southern

3-4 · Power #105

final

Final

Arkansas State

3-4 · Power #110

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARST -1.5

✓ ARST W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 28–30 ARST

✓ ARST (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -2.5

CloseARST -1.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARST -2.5

1 → GASO

CloseARST -1.5

1 pt toward Georgia Southern

Total

Open62.5

▼ 3

Close59.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARST -2.5 · closed ARST -1.5 · moved 1 toward GASOmodel ARST -2

model ARST -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (169 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (250 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -2.5

CloseARST -1.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 1.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 34–24; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 59.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 2.8; 46.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ULM vs ARST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	24–34	L	O55.5
Very close	GASO vs APP 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	29–20	W	U60.5
Very close	SDSU vs UNM 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	16–21	L	U65
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	LT vs TLSA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-2.5	20–23	L	U56.5
Very close	FAU vs UAB 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	53–33	W	O66
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	13–17	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WWLLW	3-4	43%	0-3	0-3
ARST WLLWW	4-3	57%	3-0	1-1

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; ARST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OOUOO	6-1	86%	3-4
ARST UUUUU	2-5	29%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
ARST	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−5.7 →−11.8▼ 6.1#112

ARST−9.7 →−12.8▼ 3.1#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

GASO

Longer bar = better

ARST

#60

Offense

◀ GASO better

#107

#133

Defense

Even

#123

+0.1 #65

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #72

67 plays #69

Pace

ARST faster ▶

73 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: GASO offense

	GASO off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #63	29.1 #103	GASO
Yards / play	5.48 #89	6.83 #135	GASO
PPA / play	+0.18 #45	+0.23 #128	GASO
Success rate	45% #43	47% #126	GASO

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: ARST offense

	ARST off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #108	35.6 #130	ARST
Yards / play	5.00 #117	6.69 #133	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #105	+0.29 #133	ARST
Success rate	41% #98	50% #135	ARST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	6.7 #58	7.3 #89	14.0 #79	7.0 #45	8.4 #44	15.4 #42
ARST allowed	11.3 #134	5.0 #22	16.3 #113	5.0 #64	7.9 #101	12.9 #87

ARST scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	4.4 #105	7.3 #89	11.7 #101	2.9 #130	7.6 #58	10.4 #104
GASO allowed	10.4 #133	10.7 #122	21.1 #134	10.0 #130	4.4 #27	14.4 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.