UL Monroe @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F9 mphgusts 22Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UL Monroe

3-4 · Power #130

final

Final

Southern Miss

5-2 · Power #98

▲ winner

Closing spread

USM -13.5

✓ USM W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 19–32 USM

✓ USM (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -10.5

CloseUSM -13.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSM -10.5

3 → USM

CloseUSM -13.5

3 pts toward Southern Miss

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USM -10.5 · closed USM -13.5 · moved 3 toward USMmodel USM -12

model USM -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 49% (114 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (203 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -10.5

CloseUSM -13.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 13.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: USM won 49–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 48.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 13.8; 47.2 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs EMU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	44–30	W	O47.5
Very close	UNM vs NEV 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	24–22	L	U49.5
Very close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Very close	SJSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-13	24–14	L	U53
Close	SHSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-15	31–11	W	U44.5
Close	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5
Close	WKU vs FIU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-10	6–25	L	U55.5
Close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	27–20	L	P47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WWLLL	2-5	29%	1-3	1-3
USM WLWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	4-0

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; USM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM OUOUO	4-3	57%	3-4
USM OUOOU	4-3	57%	5-2

Went over in Q3. Of 508 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
USM	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ULM 1–1 USM Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · ULM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Southern Miss 21 @ UL Monroe 38	ULM -4.5	ULM W
Nov 4 2023	UL Monroe 7 @ Southern Miss 24	USM -3	USM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−12.3 →−15.9▼ 3.6#125

USM−18.7 →−7.5▲ 11.2#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ULM

Longer bar = better

USM

#112

Offense

USM better ▶

#77

#83

Defense

USM better ▶

#48

−0.7 #121

Turnovers

USM better ▶

+1.3 #5

60 plays #133

Pace

USM faster ▶

70 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: USM defense

	ULM off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #132	25.1 #77	USM
Yards / play	5.44 #91	5.19 #42	USM
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	0.00 #27	USM
Success rate	37% #128	40% #47	USM

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #54	30.9 #114	USM
Yards / play	5.62 #78	5.76 #94	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #70	+0.12 #83	Even
Success rate	40% #105	39% #42	ULM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	4.0 #114	5.0 #117	9.0 #123	5.0 #87	2.7 #132	7.7 #125
USM allowed	7.7 #115	3.3 #6	11.0 #50	7.6 #115	6.6 #72	14.1 #109

USM scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	7.9 #34	8.7 #68	16.6 #49	6.4 #61	7.7 #55	14.1 #51
ULM allowed	8.7 #126	7.0 #71	15.7 #106	7.7 #117	7.4 #89	15.1 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.