Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

2-5 · Power #123

final

Final

Miami (OH)

3-3 · Power #91

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -11.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 19–30 M-OH

✓ M-OH (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -11.5

CloseM-OH -11.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -11.5

no move

CloseM-OH -11.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -11.5 · unchangedmodel M-OH -13

model M-OH -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 38% (93 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -11.5

CloseM-OH -11.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as an 11.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 44–30; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19 against an average line of 11; 45.4 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Very close	M-OH vs CMU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	46–7	W	O48.5
Very close	SHSU vs LT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	9–3	L	U45.5
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & rest	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	42–0	W	U43
Very close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Very close	FIU vs MTSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	35–24	W	O51
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WWLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	4-2
M-OH LLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	3-0

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OOUOU	4-3	57%	2-5
M-OH OOUUU	2-4	33%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 458 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
M-OH	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

EMU 0–1 M-OH M-OH leads · 1 game since 2023 · M-OH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Miami (OH) 38 @ Eastern Michigan 14	M-OH -2.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−11.0 →−15.6▼ 4.6#124

M-OH−2.8 →−6.2▼ 3.4#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

EMU

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#83

Offense

Even

#90

#124

Defense

M-OH better ▶

#51

0.0 #72

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #61

68 plays #56

Pace

◀ EMU faster

59 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	EMU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #96	20.7 #46	M-OH
Yards / play	5.41 #90	4.74 #27	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	+0.05 #44	M-OH
Success rate	43% #75	43% #86	Even

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: M-OH offense

	M-OH off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #100	32.0 #124	M-OH
Yards / play	5.86 #63	6.73 #132	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	+0.28 #133	M-OH
Success rate	40% #102	44% #105	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	4.1 #107	8.7 #73	12.9 #91	2.0 #133	8.0 #47	10.0 #107
M-OH allowed	4.0 #46	4.5 #17	8.5 #27	4.7 #57	7.5 #92	12.2 #82

M-OH scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	4.7 #97	6.0 #108	10.7 #113	10.2 #10	2.2 #133	12.3 #78
EMU allowed	9.0 #124	8.3 #93	17.3 #118	6.4 #102	7.3 #88	13.7 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.