Northern Illinois @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F10 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

1-5 · Power #124

final

Final

Ohio

3-3 · Power #78

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -11.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 15–26 OHIO

✓ OHIO (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -11.5

CloseOHIO -11.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -11.5

no move

CloseOHIO -11.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -11.5 · unchangedmodel OHIO -13

model OHIO -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 38% (95 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -11.5

CloseOHIO -11.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as an 11.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 5, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: OHIO won 48–21; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 42.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 10.9; 46.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & total	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	NIU vs EMU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-12	20–13	L	U43.5
Very close	NCSU vs STAN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	59–28	W	O46.5
Very close	MRSH vs ULM 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	28–23	L	O48
Very close	SHSU vs LT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	9–3	L	U45.5
Very close	FRES vs HAW 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	20–21	L	U45.5
Close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Close	MD vs NU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-11	10–37	L	O45
Close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	RICE vs CONN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-10	31–38	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-3
OHIO WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUUUU	0-6	0%	1-5
OHIO UUOOU	3-3	50%	3-3

Went over in Q3. Of 238 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	2-8 20%
OHIO	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NIU 1–0 OHIO NIU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NIU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Ohio 13 @ Northern Illinois 23	OHIO -5.5	NIU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−5.3 →−11.8▼ 6.5#111

OHIO−3.2 →−2.8▲ 0.4#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NIU

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#136

Offense

OHIO better ▶

#72

#43

Defense

◀ NIU better

#91

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

OHIO better ▶

+0.2 #58

61 plays #127

Pace

OHIO faster ▶

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	NIU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	10.8 #136	26.0 #81	OHIO
Yards / play	4.21 #136	6.34 #126	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #133	+0.09 #65	OHIO
Success rate	30% #137	43% #92	OHIO

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	OHIO off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #81	20.3 #43	NIU
Yards / play	6.12 #47	4.84 #33	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #76	+0.06 #51	NIU
Success rate	42% #85	40% #46	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	3.8 #113	2.7 #135	6.5 #131	2.2 #132	2.2 #133	4.3 #135
OHIO allowed	6.8 #103	7.3 #75	14.2 #90	3.8 #42	8.0 #103	11.8 #73

OHIO scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	5.7 #75	11.5 #28	17.2 #47	5.7 #74	3.5 #121	9.2 #114
NIU allowed	2.2 #14	5.5 #36	7.7 #18	4.2 #48	8.5 #114	12.7 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.