Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Eastern Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

1-4 · Power #124

final

Final

Eastern Michigan

1-5 · Power #123

▲ winner

Closing spread

NIU -1.5

✓ EMU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 25–23 EMU

✗ NIU (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -1.5

CloseNIU -1.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -1.5

no move

CloseNIU -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NIU -1.5 · unchangedmodel NIU -2

model NIU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 50% (130 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -1.5

CloseNIU -1.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 1.5-point road favorite at EMU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 16–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.4 against an average line of 2.7; 48.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	41–30	W	O48
Very close	LT @ FIU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	10–17	L	U49
Very close	UL @ EMU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	31–34	L	O51.5
Very close	MRSH @ MTSU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	42–28	W	O46.5
Very close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Very close	NAVY @ CLT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	14–0	W	U44.5
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-0.5	24–21	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LWLLL	1-4	20%	1-1	0-1
EMU LWWLW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-2

Venue/role: NIU away, as favorite; EMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUUUU	0-5	0%	1-4
EMU UOOUO	4-2	67%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
EMU	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NIU 1–0 EMU NIU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NIU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Eastern Michigan 13 @ Northern Illinois 20	NIU -11.5	EMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−5.3 →−11.4▼ 6.1#110

EMU−11.0 →−16.0▼ 5.0#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NIU

Longer bar = better

EMU

#135

Offense

EMU better ▶

#78

#47

Defense

◀ NIU better

#130

−0.2 #85

Turnovers

EMU better ▶

0.0 #71

60 plays #127

Pace

EMU faster ▶

67 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Even matchup

	NIU off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	11.0 #136	35.7 #129	Even
Yards / play	4.02 #136	6.99 #134	Even
PPA / play	−0.07 #132	+0.34 #135	Even
Success rate	30% #137	47% #122	Even

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	EMU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #88	21.2 #55	NIU
Yards / play	5.62 #79	4.98 #39	NIU
PPA / play	+0.14 #72	+0.05 #47	NIU
Success rate	43% #71	40% #48	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	4.6 #101	2.6 #135	7.2 #127	1.2 #135	2.6 #131	3.8 #135
EMU allowed	10.5 #130	9.2 #105	19.7 #130	6.3 #96	8.5 #114	14.8 #117

EMU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	4.3 #105	9.7 #54	14.0 #80	2.3 #129	7.7 #56	10.0 #106
NIU allowed	2.0 #15	6.0 #46	8.0 #24	5.0 #71	8.2 #106	13.2 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.