Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

1-4 · Power #123

final

Final

Buffalo

2-3 · Power #118

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUFF -9.5

✓ EMU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 22–32 BUFF

✓ BUFF (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -9.5

CloseBUFF -9.5

Total49.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -9.5

no move

CloseBUFF -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▲ 4

Close53.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -9.5 · unchangedmodel BUFF -9.5 matches the line

model BUFF -9.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 44% (110 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -9.5

CloseBUFF -9.5

Total49.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 9.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 31–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.3 against an average line of 10.6; 50.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KENN vs MTSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	24–16	W	U54.5
Very close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	OHIO vs CMU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	34–20	W	O48.5
Close	M-OH vs CMU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	46–7	W	O48.5
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-13	24–14	L	U53
Close	ARMY vs MASS 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	14–21	L	U49
Close	ECU vs FAU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	49–14	W	O58.5
Close	FIU vs MTSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	35–24	W	O51
Close	TOL vs CMU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-15	37–10	W	U52
Close	OHIO vs EMU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-10.5	35–10	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-2	2-2
BUFF WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; BUFF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OUOOU	3-2	60%	1-4
BUFF UOOUU	2-3	40%	2-3

Went over in OT. Of 482 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
BUFF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

EMU 1–1 BUFF Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · BUFF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 20 2024	Buffalo 37 @ Eastern Michigan 20	EMU -1.5	BUFF W
Nov 21 2023	Eastern Michigan 24 @ Buffalo 11	BUFF -5.5	EMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−11.0 →−16.6▼ 5.6#129

BUFF−9.8 →−10.3▼ 0.5#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

EMU

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#78

Offense

◀ EMU better

#99

#132

Defense

BUFF better ▶

#56

−0.2 #79

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #74

64 plays #108

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	EMU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #92	19.6 #45	BUFF
Yards / play	5.88 #68	4.72 #31	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.13 #79	+0.12 #85	Even
Success rate	43% #73	40% #62	Even

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: BUFF offense

	BUFF off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #93	36.6 #129	BUFF
Yards / play	5.19 #107	7.29 #135	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.11 #86	+0.37 #135	BUFF
Success rate	40% #109	49% #128	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	3.8 #117	10.2 #49	14.0 #82	1.4 #131	8.6 #44	10.0 #104
BUFF allowed	1.4 #12	4.8 #26	6.2 #15	4.0 #47	9.4 #118	13.4 #102

BUFF scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	4.8 #100	5.4 #112	10.2 #113	9.0 #29	4.8 #102	13.8 #64
EMU allowed	11.2 #129	9.6 #105	20.8 #131	6.2 #95	9.6 #123	15.8 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.