Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

1-3 · Power #123

final

Final

Central Michigan

2-2 · Power #103

▲ winner

Closing spread

CMU -3.5

✓ CMU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 26–30 CMU

✓ CMU (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -5.5

CloseCMU -3.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCMU -5.5

2 → EMU

CloseCMU -3.5

2 pts toward Eastern Michigan

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CMU -5.5 · closed CMU -3.5 · moved 2 toward EMUmodel CMU -4

model CMU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (233 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (148 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -5.5

CloseCMU -3.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CMU as a 3.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CMU won 24–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 55.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 3.1; 50.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF vs BALL 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	51–48	L	O55.5
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	CLT vs UAB 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1	29–27	W	U60
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Very close	RICE vs CLT 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	20–21	L	U48
Very close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	14–27	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1
CMU WLLW	2-2	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; CMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OUOO	3-1	75%	1-3
CMU UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
CMU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

EMU 1–1 CMU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · EMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Central Michigan 34 @ Eastern Michigan 38	EMU -3.5	EMU W
Sep 30 2023	Eastern Michigan 23 @ Central Michigan 26	CMU -10	EMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−11.0 →−15.1▼ 4.1#126

CMU−14.4 →−13.9▲ 0.5#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

EMU

Longer bar = better

CMU

#74

Offense

◀ EMU better

#110

#133

Defense

CMU better ▶

#107

0.0 #66

Turnovers

CMU better ▶

+0.5 #45

65 plays #81

Pace

◀ EMU faster

63 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: EMU offense

	EMU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #83	33.0 #123	EMU
Yards / play	6.02 #60	6.02 #109	EMU
PPA / play	+0.13 #75	+0.15 #97	EMU
Success rate	43% #77	44% #98	EMU

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: CMU offense

	CMU off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #106	39.8 #133	CMU
Yards / play	4.83 #125	7.54 #136	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #88	+0.38 #135	CMU
Success rate	37% #121	48% #127	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	4.0 #105	12.0 #30	16.0 #68	0.0 #135	10.8 #17	10.8 #102
CMU allowed	5.3 #82	12.0 #125	17.3 #113	7.0 #102	8.8 #110	15.8 #118

CMU scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	6.0 #80	9.3 #63	15.3 #77	5.3 #82	0.8 #133	6.0 #132
EMU allowed	10.5 #127	10.3 #116	20.8 #128	7.8 #114	11.3 #126	19.0 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.