Georgia Southern @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 1:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F5 mphWet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Georgia Southern

2-2 · Power #105

final

Final

James Madison

2-1 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -16.5

✓ JMU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 19–36 JMU

✓ JMU (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -16.5

CloseJMU -16.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -16.5

no move

CloseJMU -16.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -16.5 · unchangedmodel JMU -15

model JMU -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 46% (101 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -16.5

CloseJMU -16.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 16.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 35–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22 against an average line of 16.3; 53.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Very close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Very close	TROY vs UL 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-15.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5
Very close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Very close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-15	37–10	W	U52
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Close	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	47–7	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO LLWW	2-2	50%	0-2	0-1
JMU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2
JMU OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
JMU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

GASO 1–1 JMU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · GASO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	James Madison 14 @ Georgia Southern 28	JMU -8.5	GASO W
Oct 14 2023	Georgia Southern 13 @ James Madison 41	JMU -5.5	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−5.7 →−8.2▼ 2.5#101

JMU−2.2 →+2.4▲ 4.6#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

GASO

Longer bar = better

JMU

#58

Offense

◀ GASO better

#79

#133

Defense

JMU better ▶

#14

+0.5 #50

Turnovers

◀ GASO better

−0.3 #96

68 plays #60

Pace

JMU faster ▶

72 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	GASO off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #71	17.0 #35	JMU
Yards / play	5.72 #76	3.73 #8	JMU
PPA / play	+0.22 #50	−0.13 #10	JMU
Success rate	49% #34	26% #2	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #72	38.0 #130	JMU
Yards / play	5.38 #99	7.24 #134	JMU
PPA / play	+0.11 #83	+0.30 #130	JMU
Success rate	45% #60	53% #136	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	9.3 #31	9.5 #58	18.8 #44	5.3 #82	6.0 #86	11.3 #92
JMU allowed	1.0 #11	6.7 #59	7.7 #29	4.7 #65	4.7 #48	9.3 #46

JMU scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	8.0 #45	7.0 #95	15.0 #79	5.7 #77	9.3 #33	15.0 #53
GASO allowed	13.0 #132	7.5 #78	20.5 #127	10.5 #133	7.0 #84	17.5 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.