Arkansas State @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

1-3 · Power #110

final

Final

UL Monroe

2-1 · Power #130

▲ winner

Closing spread

ULM -1.5

✓ ULM W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 28–29 ULM

✓ ULM (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenULM -3.5

CloseULM -1.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenULM -3.5

2 → ARST

CloseULM -1.5

2 pts toward Arkansas State

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ULM -3.5 · closed ULM -1.5 · moved 2 toward ARSTmodel ULM -2.5

model ULM -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 47% (152 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (79 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenULM -3.5

CloseULM -1.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ULM as a 1.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ULM won 28–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.2 against an average line of 2.2; 54.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	BUFF vs BALL 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	51–48	L	O55.5
Close	ULM vs ARST 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	24–34	L	O55.5
Close	FIU vs FAU 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-2	38–28	W	O56.5
Close	EMU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	20–37	L	O53.5
Close	MTSU vs LT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-3	31–23	W	P54
Close	CLT vs UAB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	29–27	W	U60
Close	SJSU vs STAN 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–31	W	O54.5
Close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	13–17	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST WLWL	2-2	50%	0-2	1-1
ULM LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; ULM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3
ULM UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
ULM	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ARST 26–9 ULM ARST leads · 35 games since 1974 · ULM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	UL Monroe 21 @ Arkansas State 28	ARST -2.5	ARST W
Oct 28 2023	Arkansas State 34 @ UL Monroe 24	ULM -1	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−9.7 →−13.7▼ 4.0#122

ULM−12.3 →−13.7▼ 1.4#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ARST

Longer bar = better

ULM

#104

Offense

Even

#94

#130

Defense

ULM better ▶

#90

+0.5 #47

Turnovers

◀ ARST better

−0.3 #97

72 plays #22

Pace

◀ ARST faster

59 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #97	32.7 #120	ARST
Yards / play	5.13 #111	5.96 #108	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #108	+0.08 #73	ULM
Success rate	40% #100	39% #57	ULM

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: ULM offense

	ULM off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #112	33.0 #124	Even
Yards / play	5.57 #86	7.22 #133	ULM
PPA / play	+0.20 #58	+0.30 #128	ULM
Success rate	37% #119	53% #135	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	3.5 #108	11.3 #40	14.8 #81	4.3 #100	4.3 #108	8.5 #115
ULM allowed	9.3 #124	7.0 #69	16.3 #107	4.3 #61	12.0 #132	16.3 #125

ULM scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	7.0 #61	4.3 #118	11.3 #105	4.7 #96	4.0 #118	8.7 #113
ARST allowed	16.3 #136	4.5 #30	20.8 #128	5.3 #69	7.0 #85	12.3 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.