Houston @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Fri, Sep 26, 2025, 10:35 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Oregon State

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Houston

3-0 · Power #49

▲ winner

Final

Oregon State

0-4 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

HOU -11.5

✓ ORST W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 29–18 ORST

✓ HOU (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -10.5

CloseHOU -11.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -10.5

1 → HOU

CloseHOU -11.5

1 pt toward Houston

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -10.5 · closed HOU -11.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel HOU -10

model HOU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 45% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (173 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -10.5

CloseHOU -11.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as an 11.5-point road favorite at ORST, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 27–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 48.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 11.8; 59 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Close	AFA @ USU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	27–34	L	O53.75
Close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-12	45–31	W	O55
Close	ARMY @ TLSA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-13.5	49–7	W	O50.5
Close	NEB @ PUR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-10	28–10	W	U47
Close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Close	UAB @ RICE 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	24–28	L	O51
Close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-10.5	32–23	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	3-0
ORST LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; ORST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
ORST OOUU	2-2	50%	0-4

Went over in OT. Of 454 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
ORST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−1.8 →+4.6▲ 6.4#49

ORST−5.2 →−7.9▼ 2.7#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

HOU

Longer bar = better

ORST

#93

Offense

◀ HOU better

#113

Defense

◀ HOU better

#127

+2.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−1.0 #126

70 plays #34

Pace

◀ HOU faster

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #57	39.0 #132	HOU
Yards / play	5.55 #87	6.98 #129	HOU
PPA / play	+0.07 #97	+0.31 #131	HOU
Success rate	35% #132	46% #116	Even

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	ORST off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #129	9.7 #11	HOU
Yards / play	4.91 #121	3.69 #5	HOU
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	−0.19 #8	HOU
Success rate	40% #102	29% #7	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.7 #89	7.7 #88	13.3 #89	8.0 #45	11.3 #13	19.3 #20
ORST allowed	10.5 #126	11.0 #124	21.5 #130	6.8 #98	10.8 #125	17.5 #127

ORST scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	3.3 #115	3.0 #131	6.3 #128	3.0 #121	6.5 #82	9.5 #107
HOU allowed	0.0 #1	5.7 #45	5.7 #17	0.0 #1	4.0 #34	4.0 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.