Oregon State @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Oregon

Weather at kickoff69°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

0-3 · Power #100

final

Final

Oregon

3-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -34.5

✓ ORST W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 12–47 ORE

✓ ORE (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -34.5

CloseORE -34.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -34.5

no move

CloseORE -34.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

▲ 2

Close58.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -34.5 · unchangedmodel ORE -35.5

model ORE -35.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 33.5–35.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 53% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -34.5

CloseORE -34.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 34.5-point home favorite against ORST, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 41–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 40.2 against an average line of 36.3; 57.6 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEX vs UTSA 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-35.5	56–7	W	O56.5
Close	OSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-37.5	56–0	W	O54.5
Close	OSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-37.5	45–0	W	U55.5
Loose	MISS vs GASO 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-35	52–13	W	U68.5
Loose	MICH vs PUR 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-32.5	41–13	L	P54
Loose	TEX vs MSST 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-37	35–13	L	U58.5
Loose	OSU vs IU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-40	56–14	W	O62
Loose	ND vs CMU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-34.75	41–17	L	O51.25
Loose	ORE vs HAW 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-38.25	55–10	W	U67.75
Loose	TEX vs CSU 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-35	52–0	W	U62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2
ORE WWL	2-1	67%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: ORST away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST OOU	2-1	67%	0-3
ORE OOU	2-1	67%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 50% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
ORE	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ORST 0–2 ORE ORE leads · 2 games since 2023 · ORE has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Oregon 49 @ Oregon State 14	—	—
Nov 24 2023	Oregon State 7 @ Oregon 31	ORE -14	ORE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST−5.2 →−7.2▼ 2.0#92

ORE+21.3 →+22.9▲ 1.6#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ORST

Longer bar = better

ORE

#98

Offense

ORE better ▶

#118

Defense

ORE better ▶

#30

−1.0 #121

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

+1.0 #29

71 plays #37

Pace

◀ ORST faster

61 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	ORST off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #116	10.0 #16	ORE
Yards / play	5.33 #100	4.31 #32	ORE
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	−0.07 #23	ORE
Success rate	42% #81	37% #50	ORE

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	54.0 #3	38.3 #130	ORE
Yards / play	8.30 #3	6.74 #127	ORE
PPA / play	+0.64 #1	+0.26 #122	ORE
Success rate	61% #2	43% #92	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	2.0 #114	4.0 #112	6.0 #116	4.0 #93	8.7 #44	12.7 #71
ORE allowed	0.0 #1	2.0 #10	2.0 #6	1.0 #12	7.0 #76	8.0 #35

ORE scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	14.7 #6	17.3 #8	32.0 #3	18.7 #1	3.3 #102	22.0 #8
ORST allowed	11.7 #117	10.0 #102	21.7 #117	5.7 #78	11.0 #117	16.7 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.