Illinois @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Illinois

3-0 · Power #30

final

Final

Indiana

3-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -7.5

✓ IU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 24–32 IU

✓ IU (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -4.5

CloseIU -7.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -4.5

3 → IU

CloseIU -7.5

3 pts toward Indiana

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -4.5 · closed IU -7.5 · moved 3 toward IUmodel IU -8.5

model IU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 58% (139 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (50 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -4.5

CloseIU -7.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 7.5-point home favorite against ILL, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IU won 63–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 7.8; 56.1 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-9	27–10	W	U51
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Close	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-6.5	31–24	W	O45
Close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Close	MIZ vs KU 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	42–31	W	O50.25
Loose	ALA vs TEX 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	24–34	L	O53.5
Loose	IU vs MD 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	42–28	W	O49.5
Loose	KU vs UNLV 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	20–23	L	U57.5
Loose	OSU vs MICH 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9	23–45	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	—
IU LW–	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: ILL away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL UOU	1-2	33%	3-0
IU UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q3. Of 492 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
IU	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ILL 1–0 IU ILL leads · 1 game since 2023 · ILL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Indiana 45 @ Illinois 48	ILL -4.5	IU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL+4.1 →+9.5▲ 5.4#33

IU+13.4 →+14.5▲ 1.1#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ILL

Longer bar = better

#29

Offense

IU better ▶

#10

#37

Defense

IU better ▶

#20

+2.0 #8

Turnovers

◀ ILL better

+1.3 #24

65 plays #82

Pace

IU faster ▶

74 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #16	7.7 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.24 #51	4.44 #33	Even
PPA / play	+0.37 #19	−0.04 #32	Even
Success rate	50% #31	29% #8	IU

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	52.0 #7	7.3 #5	Even
Yards / play	7.96 #8	4.57 #41	IU
PPA / play	+0.36 #21	−0.01 #49	IU
Success rate	59% #5	38% #52	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	8.0 #40	10.3 #44	18.3 #46	11.7 #8	15.0 #1	26.7 #1
IU allowed	2.3 #30	2.0 #12	4.3 #12	1.0 #12	2.3 #16	3.3 #7

IU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	14.0 #5	13.7 #23	27.7 #9	17.3 #1	7.0 #64	24.3 #4
ILL allowed	1.0 #12	3.3 #20	4.3 #12	2.0 #21	1.0 #5	3.0 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.