Michigan State @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Michigan State

3-0 · Power #67

final

Final

USC

3-0 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -18.5

✓ MSU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 76 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 19–39 USC

✓ USC (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -15.5

CloseUSC -18.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -15.5

3 → USC

CloseUSC -18.5

3 pts toward USC

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -15.5 · closed USC -18.5 · moved 3 toward USCmodel USC -24.5

model USC -24.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 52% (83 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (170 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -15.5

CloseUSC -18.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as an 18.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 45–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 76 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 20; 56.5 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs WSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	38–24	L	O60.5
Very close	MIA vs VT 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-17.5	38–34	L	O55.5
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	MIA vs DUKE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-21	53–31	W	O55.5
Loose	MIA vs GT 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & situation	-19	20–23	L	U57
Loose	PSU vs ILL 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-19.5	21–7	L	U48.5
Loose	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	27–25	L	O50
Loose	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Loose	ORE vs COLO 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	42–6	W	U70
Loose	ORST vs SDSU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24.5	26–9	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU LLL	0-3	0%	—	—
USC WWL	2-1	67%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
USC OOU	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 442 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%
USC	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MSU 4–5 USC USC leads · 9 games since 1963 · USC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+0.3 →+0.2▼ 0.1#68

USC+14.0 →+18.7▲ 4.7#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MSU

Longer bar = better

USC

#62

Offense

USC better ▶

#77

Defense

USC better ▶

#34

−0.3 #91

Turnovers

USC better ▶

+1.7 #8

65 plays #89

Pace

◀ MSU faster

63 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: USC defense

	MSU off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #47	16.7 #35	Even
Yards / play	5.98 #60	4.74 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #72	−0.06 #21	USC
Success rate	44% #70	36% #37	USC

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	55.0 #3	23.3 #73	USC
Yards / play	9.64 #1	5.39 #74	USC
PPA / play	+0.64 #1	+0.10 #78	USC
Success rate	61% #2	42% #83	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	7.0 #60	10.3 #49	17.3 #59	8.7 #38	4.3 #107	13.0 #75
USC allowed	3.0 #41	5.7 #45	8.7 #42	5.7 #79	2.3 #14	8.0 #32

USC scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	12.7 #13	17.3 #6	30.0 #6	13.7 #5	11.3 #12	25.0 #3
MSU allowed	1.0 #13	9.3 #108	10.3 #57	3.3 #42	5.3 #66	8.7 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.