Maryland @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Maryland

3-0 · Power #72

▲ winner

Final

Wisconsin

2-1 · Power #63

final

Closing spread

WIS -10.5

✓ MD W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 17–27 WIS

✗ WIS (75%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -6.5

CloseWIS -10.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWIS -6.5

4 → WIS

CloseWIS -10.5

4 pts toward Wisconsin

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WIS -6.5 · closed WIS -10.5 · moved 4 toward WISmodel WIS -5

model WIS -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 42% (103 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (45 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -6.5

CloseWIS -10.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 10.5-point home favorite against MD, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MD won 27–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 8; 43.3 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-9	27–10	W	U51
Close	FLA vs UK 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	16–26	L	U52.75
Close	NEB vs ILL 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-9	24–31	L	O42
Close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	21–6	W	U52
Loose	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Loose	GT vs DUKE 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & spread	-10	24–14	P	U52.5
Loose	SJSU vs UNLV 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	40–7	W	U51.5
Loose	AUB vs VAN 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	7–17	L	U48
Loose	TROY vs USA 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	28–10	W	U43.5
Loose	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD WLL	1-2	33%	—	—
WIS LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; WIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD UUO	1-2	33%	3-0
WIS UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 56% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
WIS	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+2.1 →+4.3▲ 2.2#51

WIS+5.3 →+5.9▲ 0.6#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

WIS

#62

Offense

Even

#73

#14

Defense

◀ MD better

#75

+2.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ MD better

−0.7 #104

71 plays #36

Pace

◀ MD faster

61 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #55	16.0 #40	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #93	5.34 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #49	+0.11 #86	MD
Success rate	46% #52	43% #97	MD

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	WIS off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #90	11.0 #20	MD
Yards / play	5.42 #91	4.14 #26	MD
PPA / play	+0.19 #60	−0.27 #5	MD
Success rate	46% #51	26% #5	MD

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

MD scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	9.0 #34	16.7 #11	25.7 #14	5.3 #70	3.3 #98	8.7 #95
WIS allowed	3.3 #46	7.0 #64	10.3 #54	4.7 #61	1.0 #7	5.7 #20

WIS scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	1.0 #112	4.7 #101	5.7 #113	9.3 #25	9.3 #29	18.7 #23
MD allowed	2.3 #28	1.0 #3	3.3 #8	4.3 #53	3.3 #32	7.7 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.