Texas Tech @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

3-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Utah

3-0 · Power #8

final

Closing spread

UTAH -3.5

✓ TTU W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 27–31 UTAH

✗ UTAH (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -4.5

CloseUTAH -3.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -4.5

1 → TTU

CloseUTAH -3.5

1 pt toward Texas Tech

Total

Open56.5

▲ 2

Close58.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -4.5 · closed UTAH -3.5 · moved 1 toward TTUmodel UTAH -5

model UTAH -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (226 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (185 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -4.5

CloseUTAH -3.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like UTAH as a 3.5-point home favorite against TTU, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 34–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 44 points stayed under 58.5, as in 2 of 3.

Favorite won

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 4.7; 56.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	BYU vs BAY 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	26–20	W	U55
Loose	TCU vs UCF 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	34–35	L	O61.5
Loose	MSST vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-9	31–24	L	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU –WW	2-0	100%	—	—
UTAH WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	3-0

Venue/role: TTU away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU OOU	2-1	67%	3-0
UTAH OOU	2-1	67%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 46 in the 4th quarter and got 31. 50% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	8-2 80%
UTAH	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+5.6 →+12.1▲ 6.5#24

UTAH+4.1 →+13.1▲ 9.0#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TTU

Longer bar = better

UTAH

Offense

◀ TTU better

#19

Defense

Even

#13

+0.7 #48

Turnovers

UTAH better ▶

+1.3 #19

74 plays #21

Pace

Even

80 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	58.0 #1	8.3 #8	Even
Yards / play	8.14 #6	4.07 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.51 #5	−0.22 #9	Even
Success rate	58% #7	31% #13	Even

When UTAH has the ball

Even matchup

	UTAH off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	45.7 #14	11.7 #22	Even
Yards / play	6.49 #40	3.72 #11	TTU
PPA / play	+0.39 #17	−0.49 #1	Even
Success rate	59% #6	17% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	19.3 #2	21.7 #1	41.0 #1	10.3 #17	6.7 #66	17.0 #30
UTAH allowed	1.0 #12	3.3 #17	4.3 #11	1.0 #11	3.0 #28	4.0 #9

UTAH scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	10.0 #19	10.3 #42	20.3 #35	14.0 #3	11.3 #14	25.3 #2
TTU allowed	0.0 #1	0.0 #1	0.0 #1	0.0 #1	11.7 #114	11.7 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.