SMU @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at TCU

Weather at kickoff86°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

SMU

2-1 · Power #27

final

Final

TCU

2-0 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -6.5

✓ TCU W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 27–33 TCU

✓ TCU (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -6.5

CloseTCU -6.5

Total63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -6.5

no move

CloseTCU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open63.5

no move

Close63.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -6.5 · unchangedmodel TCU -6.5 matches the line

model TCU -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (164 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -6.5

CloseTCU -6.5

Total63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 6.5-point home favorite against SMU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 35–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points stayed under 63.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 5.9; 45.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	31–7	W	U61
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	FSU vs WAKE 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	21–31	L	U67.5
Very close	TCU vs SMU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	34–17	W	U63
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Close	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Close	TEX vs TCU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	10–17	L	U65.75
Close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Close	BOIS vs UNLV 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	21–7	W	U57.5
Close	ARIZ vs TTU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-6	22–28	L	U63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	—
TCU WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: SMU away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU UOU	1-2	33%	2-1
TCU OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 43% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
TCU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SMU 1–1 TCU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · SMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	TCU 42 @ SMU 66	—	—
Sep 23 2023	SMU 17 @ TCU 34	TCU -7	TCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+12.5 →+7.2▼ 5.3#37

TCU+7.9 →+10.7▲ 2.8#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

SMU

Longer bar = better

TCU

#45

Offense

TCU better ▶

#10

#67

Defense

◀ SMU better

#81

+0.7 #39

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #51

66 plays #68

Pace

Even

66 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #38	17.5 #44	Even
Yards / play	6.56 #34	5.44 #86	SMU
PPA / play	+0.21 #55	+0.20 #112	SMU
Success rate	46% #53	42% #83	SMU

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #15	23.7 #81	TCU
Yards / play	7.81 #9	5.40 #84	TCU
PPA / play	+0.49 #7	−0.07 #22	Even
Success rate	57% #8	42% #82	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	8.0 #40	11.7 #33	19.7 #38	4.7 #78	11.7 #10	16.3 #37
TCU allowed	3.5	0.0	3.5	8.0	6.0	14.0

TCU scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	10.5	13.5	24.0	14.0	7.0	21.0
SMU allowed	3.3 #46	8.0 #76	11.3 #60	1.0 #11	8.0 #85	9.0 #47

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.