Tulsa @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Fri, Sep 19, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Oklahoma State

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

1-2 · Power #113

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma State

1-1 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

OKST -10.5

✓ TLSA W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 22–33 OKST

✗ OKST (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOKST -13.5

CloseOKST -10.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOKST -13.5

3 → TLSA

CloseOKST -10.5

3 pts toward Tulsa

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OKST -13.5 · closed OKST -10.5 · moved 3 toward TLSAmodel OKST -10

model OKST -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 42% (102 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (137 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOKST -13.5

CloseOKST -10.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OKST as a 10.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TLSA won 19–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 9; 47.9 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-8.5	27–17	W	U49
Loose	JXST vs USM 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-6	44–7	W	U59.5
Loose	APP vs GAST 2024 · Week 9 · loose	-7.5	33–26	L	P59
Loose	UCLA vs UNM 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-15.5	10–35	L	U52.5
Loose	LIB vs BGSU 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-9	34–24	W	O49
Loose	HAW vs SHSU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-7.25	37–20	W	O48
Loose	NEB vs NIU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-11.5	35–11	W	O42.75
Loose	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Loose	CONN vs FIU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-7	17–24	L	U43.5
Loose	RICE vs SHSU 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-9.5	14–34	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
OKST –L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; OKST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
OKST UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
OKST	1-9 10%	1-8 11%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TLSA 0–1 OKST OKST leads · 1 game since 2023 · OKST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Oklahoma State 45 @ Tulsa 10	OKST -17.5	OKST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−18.6 →−14.6▲ 4.0#123

OKST−2.7 →−7.8▼ 5.1#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TLSA

Longer bar = better

OKST

#98

Offense

◀ TLSA better

#113

#79

Defense

◀ TLSA better

#127

0.0 #69

Turnovers

◀ TLSA better

−0.5 #97

76 plays #13

Pace

◀ TLSA faster

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: TLSA offense

	TLSA off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #92	38.0 #129	TLSA
Yards / play	5.30 #103	7.32 #133	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	+0.39 #135	TLSA
Success rate	42% #89	46% #112	TLSA

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: TLSA defense

	OKST off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #122	23.3 #76	TLSA
Yards / play	4.29 #131	4.99 #60	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.13 #77	+0.09 #80	Even
Success rate	36% #122	44% #101	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 118 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	7.0 #56	2.0 #116	9.0 #97	6.0 #65	9.0 #37	15.0 #47
OKST allowed	13.5	10.5	24.0	14.0	0.0	14.0

OKST scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	7.0	3.0	10.0	1.5	3.5	5.0
TLSA allowed	3.3 #46	4.7 #34	8.0 #34	7.0 #90	8.3 #93	15.3 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.