Sam Houston @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 11:59 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Hawai'i

Weather at kickoff81°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

0-2 · Power #135

final

Final

Hawai'i

1-1 · Power #90

▲ winner

Closing spread

HAW -7.5

✓ HAW W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 21–28 HAW

✓ HAW (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHAW -8.5

CloseHAW -7.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHAW -8.5

1 → SHSU

CloseHAW -7.5

1 pt toward Sam Houston

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HAW -8.5 · closed HAW -7.5 · moved 1 toward SHSUmodel HAW -4.5

model HAW -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (131 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (172 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHAW -8.5

CloseHAW -7.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HAW as a 7.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 4, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: HAW won 37–20; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal, covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 2.1 against an average line of 7.1; 42.1 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total	-8.5	27–17	W	U49
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Close	ARST vs TROY 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-8.5	34–31	L	O50
Close	RICE vs CLT 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	20–21	L	U48
Close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	10–16	L	U44
Close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Close	CMU vs BALL 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	37–34	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
HAW WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; HAW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU OU	1-1	50%	0-2
HAW UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 414 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
HAW	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SHSU 1–0 HAW SHSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SHSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Hawai'i 13 @ Sam Houston 31	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−8.0 →−10.6▼ 2.6#109

HAW−11.4 →−11.4–#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

SHSU

Longer bar = better

HAW

#104

Offense

◀ SHSU better

#118

#115

Defense

HAW better ▶

#81

+0.5 #61

Turnovers

◀ SHSU better

−2.5 #133

66 plays #82

Pace

HAW faster ▶

70 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: HAW defense

	SHSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #96	30.0 #109	Even
Yards / play	5.45 #86	4.88 #69	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #125	+0.13 #96	HAW
Success rate	38% #108	37% #50	HAW

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #121	39.5 #128	Even
Yards / play	4.26 #125	6.41 #118	Even
PPA / play	−0.07 #124	+0.19 #108	Even
Success rate	39% #103	44% #107	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 6 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	5.0	3.5	8.5	7.0	7.0	14.0
HAW allowed	8.5	6.5	15.0	7.0	8.0	15.0

HAW scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	5.0	5.0	10.0	1.5	3.0	4.5
SHSU allowed	10.5	11.5	22.0	10.5	7.0	17.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.