Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Nevada
Closing spread
NEV -9.5
✓ SAC W
Total
55.5
▼ Under · 37 pts
Model before kickoff
SAC 25–35 NEV
✓ NEV (76%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNEV -7.5
CloseNEV -9.5
Total54.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNEV -7.5
2 → NEV
CloseNEV -9.5
2 pts toward Nevada
Total
Open54.5
▲ 1
Close55.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NEV -7.5 · closed NEV -9.5 · moved 2 toward NEVmodel NEV -11
model NEV -11
Opened 54.5 · closed 55.5 · moved 1 upmodel 60.5
model 60.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 44% (100 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (148 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNEV -7.5
CloseNEV -9.5
Total54.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 3 games most like 
NEV as a 9.5-point home favorite against SAC, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.
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This game: NEV won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 37 points stayed under 55.5, as in 3 of 3.
Favorite won
3 of 3100%
Normal range · usually 74%
Favorite covered
1 of 333%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
0 of 30%
Normal range · usually 52%
Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 8.9; 46.7 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›
All 3 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |
2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total |
-9.75 | 24–21 | L | U55 |
| Loose |  FAU vs  CLT2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread |
-7 | 43–13 | W | U60 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread |
-10 | 22–17 | L | U58.5 |
TEM
AKR
LT
FIUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Nevada ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
Green signals have beaten the market in our backtest; yellow ones only describe the data.
Market moved toward Nevada
2 pts (NEV -7.5 → NEV -9.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Nevada at altitude (+1.4 km)
Sacramento State climb about 4,593 ft to play here; visitors have covered less often than the line expects at altitude. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-41 (61%)
Small sample warning
Sacramento State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 SAClast 3 | 1-2 33% | 2-1 67% | 2-1 67% |
| NEV | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Matchup
Power ratings week by week, before kickoff
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
SAC−16.6 →−16.5▲ 0.1
NEV−9.7 →−11.2▼ 1.5#113
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NEV +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
85° · 6 mph
gusts 18 mph · at kickoff
Rest
SAC1st game
NEV7d
Even
Altitude
SAC +4,593 ft
thin air for the visitors
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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