UCLA @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at UNLV

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

UCLA

0-1 · Power #70

final

Final

UNLV

2-0 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCLA -2.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 29–28 UNLV

✗ UCLA (52%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCLA -3.5

CloseUCLA -2.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCLA -3.5

1 → UNLV

CloseUCLA -2.5

1 pt toward UNLV

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCLA -3.5 · closed UCLA -2.5 · moved 1 toward UNLVmodel UNLV -7.5

model UNLV -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (161 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (66 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCLA -3.5

CloseUCLA -2.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like UCLA as a 2.5-point road favorite at UNLV, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 30–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 53 points stayed under 54.5, as in 2 of 2.

Favorite won

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 1.5; 35.5 points a game (usually 52.8). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	APP @ ECU 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & rest	-1.5	21–19	W	U58.5
Loose	UTSA @ HOU 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.5	14–17	L	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA L	0-1	0%	—	—
UNLV LW	1-1	50%	0-1	—

Venue/role: UCLA away, as favorite; UNLV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA O	1-0	100%	0-1
UNLV OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UNLV	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+5.3 →−1.2▼ 6.5#69

UNLV+5.4 →+2.4▼ 3.0#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

UCLA

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#118

Offense

UNLV better ▶

#32

#128

Defense

UNLV better ▶

#92

−1.0 #116

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+1.5 #24

50 plays #136

Pace

UNLV faster ▶

62 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	UCLA off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #131	26.0 #96	UNLV
Yards / play	4.40 #120	6.03 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	−0.03 #50	UNLV
Success rate	35% #122	46% #117	Even

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #42	43.0 #134	UNLV
Yards / play	7.55 #16	6.15 #109	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.29 #32	+0.44 #133	UNLV
Success rate	50% #36	62% #136	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.