Utah State @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Texas A&M

Weather at kickoff82°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

1-0 · Power #86

final

Final

Texas A&M

1-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -34.5

✓ USU W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 13–47 TA&M

✓ TA&M (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -29.5

CloseTA&M -34.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -29.5

5 → TA&M

CloseTA&M -34.5

5 pts toward Texas A&M

Total

Open55.5

▲ 2

Close57.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -29.5 · closed TA&M -34.5 · moved 5 toward TA&Mmodel TA&M -30.5

model TA&M -30.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 33.5–35.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 49% (40 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 42% (98 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -29.5

CloseTA&M -34.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 34.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 44–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 37.3 against an average line of 32.5; 54.7 points a game (usually 56.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M vs ULM 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-36.5	47–3	W	U53.5
Close	LSU vs ARMY 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-33	62–0	W	O60
Close	CLEM vs LT 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-33.5	48–20	L	O53.5
Loose	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Loose	MSU vs AKR 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-34.5	52–0	W	U56
Loose	USC vs USU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-29.5	48–0	W	U63
Loose	PSU vs BGSU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-35	34–27	L	O51.5
Loose	PSU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-28	46–10	W	O55
Loose	PSU vs CMU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-28	33–14	L	U61.5
Loose	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU W	1-0	100%	—	—
TA&M L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU U	0-1	0%	1-0
TA&M O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 357 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
TA&M	6-4 60%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−10.4 →−10.8▼ 0.4#110

TA&M+14.3 →+14.0▼ 0.3#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

USU

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#74

Offense

TA&M better ▶

#41

#65

Defense

◀ USU better

#91

+1.0 #37

Turnovers

◀ USU better

0.0 #86

61 plays #94

Pace

Even

59 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Even matchup

	USU off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #62	24.0 #97	USU
Yards / play	5.90 #61	5.57 #97	USU
PPA / play	+0.10 #82	+0.25 #111	USU
Success rate	39% #90	36% #58	TA&M

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #34	16.0 #68	TA&M
Yards / play	6.76 #36	3.94 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.39 #32	+0.04 #74	TA&M
Success rate	45% #61	40% #82	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.