Air Force @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 9:45 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Air Force

1-0 · Power #95

final

Final

Utah State

1-1 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

AFA -3.5

✓ USU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 28–25 USU

✗ AFA (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -4.5

CloseAFA -3.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAFA -4.5

1 → USU

CloseAFA -3.5

1 pt toward Utah State

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AFA -4.5 · closed AFA -3.5 · moved 1 toward USUmodel AFA -3.5 matches the line

model AFA -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (154 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (184 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -4.5

CloseAFA -3.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 3.5-point road favorite at USU, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 49–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 4.6; 48.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Loose	WVU @ OHIO 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	10–17	L	U58.5
Loose	RICE @ USF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	29–42	L	O57.5
Loose	DUKE @ GT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread	-3.5	20–23	L	U54
Loose	LIB @ JXST 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-6.25	24–34	L	O50.5
Loose	AFA @ SJSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-6	45–20	W	O45.5
Loose	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5
Loose	TLSA @ NMSU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & spread	-3.25	14–21	L	U53
Loose	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Loose	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & situation	-5	45–38	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
USU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: AFA away, as favorite; USU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA O	1-0	100%	1-0
USU UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 491 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
USU	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AFA 1–0 USU AFA leads · 1 game since 2023 · AFA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 15 2023	Utah State 21 @ Air Force 39	AFA -9	AFA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−8.0 →−5.5▲ 2.5#87

USU−10.4 →−10.8▼ 0.4#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

AFA

Longer bar = better

USU

#12

Offense

◀ AFA better

#112

#45

Defense

◀ AFA better

#102

+2.0 #5

Turnovers

◀ AFA better

+0.5 #52

60 plays #119

Pace

USU faster ▶

64 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	49.0 #12	30.0 #113	AFA
Yards / play	7.10 #27	5.55 #93	AFA
PPA / play	+0.52 #6	+0.08 #83	AFA
Success rate	65% #1	47% #118	AFA

When USU has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	USU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #85	13.0 #29	AFA
Yards / play	4.80 #117	4.29 #34	AFA
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	−0.05 #34	AFA
Success rate	34% #128	41% #81	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.