Kansas State @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Fri, Sep 12, 2025, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Arizona

Weather at kickoff90°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

1-2 · Power #42

final

Final

Arizona

2-0 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -1.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 28–27 ARIZ

✗ KSU (51%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -1.5

CloseKSU -1.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -1.5

no move

CloseKSU -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▲ 2

Close56.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -1.5 · unchangedmodel ARIZ -3.5

model ARIZ -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 50% (109 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -1.5

CloseKSU -1.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like KSU as a 1.5-point road favorite at ARIZ, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 23–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 7 similar games. 40 points stayed under 56.5, as in 3 of 7.

Favorite won

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 3.2; 55.9 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Loose	UVA @ CCU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	43–24	W	O52
Loose	CLEM @ SYR 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-7	31–14	W	U53
Loose	UTSA @ HOU 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.5	14–17	L	U60
Loose	MIA @ FLA 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	41–17	W	O54.5
Loose	WVU @ PITT 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2	34–38	L	O61.5
Loose	ND @ SYR 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-0.5	41–24	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU LLL	0-3	0%	—	0-3
ARIZ WW	2-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: KSU away, as favorite; ARIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UOU	1-2	33%	1-2
ARIZ UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
ARIZ	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KSU 1–0 ARIZ KSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 13 2024	Arizona 7 @ Kansas State 31	KSU -9.5	KSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+9.4 →+4.4▼ 5.0#49

ARIZ−2.1 →+3.6▲ 5.7#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

KSU

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#73

Offense

ARIZ better ▶

#40

#76

Defense

ARIZ better ▶

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

ARIZ better ▶

+3.5 #1

57 plays #128

Pace

ARIZ faster ▶

62 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	KSU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #79	4.5 #4	ARIZ
Yards / play	6.34 #51	3.62 #12	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.11 #83	−0.24 #7	ARIZ
Success rate	42% #78	30% #14	ARIZ

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #25	27.7 #106	ARIZ
Yards / play	7.32 #21	4.38 #46	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.39 #18	+0.12 #95	ARIZ
Success rate	40% #96	37% #55	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 14 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	4.3 #13	8.0 #7	12.3 #12	7.3 #5	7.0 #8	14.3 #9
ARIZ allowed	1.5	1.5	3.0	0.0	1.5	1.5

ARIZ scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	15.5	10.0	25.5	14.0	4.5	18.5
KSU allowed	4.7 #6	7.0 #8	11.7 #6	4.7 #8	11.3 #14	16.0 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.