Army @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Kansas State

Weather at kickoff71°F9 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Army

0-1 · Power #83

▲ winner

Final

Kansas State

1-1 · Power #42

final

Closing spread

KSU -16.5

✓ ARMY W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ARMY 16–35 KSU

✗ KSU (90%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -17.5

CloseKSU -16.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -17.5

1 → ARMY

CloseKSU -16.5

1 pt toward Army

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -17.5 · closed KSU -16.5 · moved 1 toward ARMYmodel KSU -25

model KSU -25

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 46% (94 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (167 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -17.5

CloseKSU -16.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 16.5-point home favorite against ARMY, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18 against an average line of 17; 49.4 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ND vs STAN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	14–16	L	U53.5
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Close	TCU vs HOU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	19–30	L	U52
Close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Close	MINN vs EMU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	25–6	L	U48
Loose	FRES vs NMSU 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-20	48–0	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARMY L	0-1	0%	—	—
KSU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: ARMY away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY O	1-0	100%	0-1
KSU UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMY	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
KSU	6-4 60%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARMY−9.7 →−11.5▼ 1.8#117

KSU+9.4 →+8.3▼ 1.1#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ARMY

Longer bar = better

KSU

#88

Offense

KSU better ▶

#61

#81

Defense

Even

#78

−3.0 #134

Turnovers

KSU better ▶

0.0 #85

82 plays #7

Pace

◀ ARMY faster

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARMY has the ball

Even matchup

	ARMY off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #68	29.5 #107	ARMY
Yards / play	5.01 #87	4.57 #61	KSU
PPA / play	−0.07 #115	+0.11 #86	KSU
Success rate	41% #81	36% #56	KSU

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #60	30.0 #109	KSU
Yards / play	6.54 #42	4.78 #72	KSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #71	+0.22 #107	KSU
Success rate	42% #72	31% #35	ARMY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.