Houston @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Rice

Weather at kickoff88°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Houston

1-0 · Power #49

▲ winner

Final

Rice

1-0 · Power #126

final

Closing spread

HOU -13.5

✓ HOU W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 25–14 RICE

✓ HOU (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -12.5

CloseHOU -13.5

Total40.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -12.5

1 → HOU

CloseHOU -13.5

1 pt toward Houston

Total

Open40.5

▼ 2

Close38.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -12.5 · closed HOU -13.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel HOU -4

model HOU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 46% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (145 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -12.5

CloseHOU -13.5

Total40.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 13.5-point road favorite at RICE, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 35–9; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 38.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.6 against an average line of 11.8; 39.8 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AFA @ NAVY 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	17–6	P	U34
Loose	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Loose	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & rest	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Loose	TOL @ BGSU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form	-10	32–31	L	O49.5
Loose	NAVY @ AFA 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10	34–7	W	O37
Loose	ISU @ HOU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-16.5	20–0	W	U43
Loose	NAVY @ RICE 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-12.5	10–24	L	U49
Loose	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-10	42–7	W	U50
Loose	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-6	19–24	L	P43
Loose	OHIO @ BGSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-13	38–7	W	P45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
RICE W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; RICE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU U	0-1	0%	1-0
RICE U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 89 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–42.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	2-7 22%
RICE	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

HOU 1–1 RICE Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · HOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Rice 7 @ Houston 33	HOU -3.5	HOU W
Sep 9 2023	Houston 41 @ Rice 43	HOU -7.5	RICE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−1.8 →−1.3▲ 0.5#70

RICE−9.0 →−7.1▲ 1.9#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

HOU

Longer bar = better

RICE

#86

Offense

◀ HOU better

#102

Defense

◀ HOU better

#42

+2.0 #27

Turnovers

Even

+2.0 #24

73 plays #35

Pace

◀ HOU faster

64 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: RICE defense

	HOU off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #69	12.0 #51	Even
Yards / play	4.70 #100	4.05 #41	RICE
PPA / play	+0.08 #86	−0.11 #41	RICE
Success rate	39% #88	31% #34	RICE

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	RICE off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #108	0.0 #8	HOU
Yards / play	3.92 #123	2.48 #6	HOU
PPA / play	0.00 #103	−0.43 #8	HOU
Success rate	42% #74	16% #6	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.