Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Louisiana
Closing spread
UL -9.5
✓ RICE W
Total
48.5
▼ Under · 26 pts
Model before kickoff
RICE 21–30 UL
✗ UL (75%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUL -11.5
CloseUL -9.5
Total47.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUL -11.5
2 → RICE
CloseUL -9.5
2 pts toward Rice
Total
Open47.5
▲ 1
Close48.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UL -11.5 · closed UL -9.5 · moved 2 toward RICEmodel UL -9.5 matches the line
model UL -9.5 = line ✓
Opened 47.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 1 upmodel 51.5
model 51.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 45% (99 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (113 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUL -11.5
CloseUL -9.5
Total47.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
UL as a 9.5-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: RICE won 14–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 74%
Favorite covered
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 52%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 8.8; 53.5 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & total |
-9.5 | 14–34 | L | U49 |
| Very close |  UVA vs  ODU2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-8.25 | 16–14 | L | U52.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total |
-7 | 7–33 | L | U49.25 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-9 | 34–24 | W | O49 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread |
-10 | 35–24 | W | O48.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total |
-7 | 24–17 | P | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-10.5 | 28–23 | L | O48 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-7.5 | 43–28 | W | O48.25 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-9.5 | 33–17 | W | U54.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-9.5 | 59–28 | W | O46.5 |
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STANHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Rice ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Rice
2 pts (UL -11.5 → UL -9.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Rice have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 RICE | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| UL | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
UL +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
80° · 2 mph
gusts 5 mph · at kickoff
Rest
RICE1st game
UL1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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TEM @ 
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