Thu, Aug 28, 2025, 5:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at South Florida
Closing spread
BOIS -5.5
✓ USF W
Total
60.5
▼ Under · 41 pts
Model before kickoff
BOIS 33–27 USF
✗ BOIS (66%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBOIS -5.5
CloseBOIS -5.5
Total63.5 → 60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBOIS -5.5
no move
CloseBOIS -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open63.5
▼ 3
Close60.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BOIS -5.5 · unchangedmodel BOIS -7
model BOIS -7
Opened 63.5 · closed 60.5 · moved 3 downmodel 59.5
model 59.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 52% (95 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBOIS -5.5
CloseBOIS -5.5
Total63.5 → 60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
BOIS as a 5.5-point road favorite at USF, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: USF won 34–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 60.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 63%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 6.6; 54.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  UCF @  ECU2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-5.5 | 13–34 | L | U63 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-7.5 | 27–16 | W | U59.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-8.5 | 34–27 | L | O58.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread |
-7.5 | 30–31 | L | O60 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-6.5 | 43–30 | W | O57.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-5.5 | 21–0 | W | U54 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 25–17 | W | U60.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-7.5 | 58–25 | W | O55 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total |
-7 | 20–34 | L | U57.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-6.5 | 33–25 | W | U61.5 |
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APPHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 3
63.5 → 60.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Boise State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 45% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
 USF | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
USF +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
87° · 5 mph
gusts 15 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BOIS1st game
USF1st game
Even
Travel
BOIS 2,154 mi
2 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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