Thu, Aug 28, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Akron
Closing spread
WYO -4.5
✓ WYO W
Total
47.5
▼ Under · 10 pts
Model before kickoff
WYO 25–22 AKR
✓ WYO (59%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWYO -6.5
CloseWYO -4.5
Total48.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWYO -6.5
2 → AKR
CloseWYO -4.5
2 pts toward Akron
Total
Open48.5
▼ 1
Close47.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WYO -6.5 · closed WYO -4.5 · moved 2 toward AKRmodel AKR -2
model AKR -2
Opened 48.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 1 downmodel 47.5 matches the line
model 47.5 = line ✓
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 48% (91 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (104 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWYO -6.5
CloseWYO -4.5
Total48.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
WYO as a 4.5-point road favorite at AKR, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: WYO won 10–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 10 points stayed under 47.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 61%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 4.2; 45.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-3 | 14–0 | W | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-2 | 10–17 | L | U49 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar total & situation |
-8.5 | 13–17 | L | U47.25 |
| Very close |  USM @  ULM2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-3 | 20–10 | W | U50 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings |
-4 | 55–14 | W | O42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-3 | 38–14 | W | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total |
-7 | 41–28 | W | O44 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total |
-2.5 | 21–25 | L | U50.5 |
| Close |  FAU @  UTEP2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 21–24 | L | U50.75 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings |
-6 | 41–34 | W | O52 |
NAVY
CLT
LT
FIU
ARMY
NIU
M-OH
EMU
MASS
SDSU
HAWHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Akron ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Akron
2 pts (WYO -6.5 → WYO -4.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Wyoming have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 45 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WYO | 3-7 30% | 5-4 56% | 4-5 44% |
 AKR | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
AKR +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
63° · 8 mph
gusts 21 mph · at kickoff
Rest
WYO1st game
AKR1st game
Even
Travel
WYO 1,247 mi
2 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
FRES @ 
KU
STAN @ 
BOIS @ 
USF
OHIO @ 
RUTG
BUFF @ 
MINN
WIS
WMU @ 
MSU
UNLV @ 
SHSU
CMU @ 
SJSU
BALL @ 
PUR