Thu, Aug 28, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Minnesota
Closing spread
MINN -16.5
✓ BUFF W
Total
41.5
▼ Under · 33 pts
Model before kickoff
BUFF 15–33 MINN
✓ MINN (90%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMINN -17.5
CloseMINN -16.5
Total44.5 → 41.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMINN -17.5
1 → BUFF
CloseMINN -16.5
1 pt toward Buffalo
Total
Open44.5
▼ 3
Close41.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MINN -17.5 · closed MINN -16.5 · moved 1 toward BUFFmodel MINN -23.5
model MINN -23.5
Opened 44.5 · closed 41.5 · moved 3 downmodel 48
model 48
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 46% (81 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (147 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMINN -17.5
CloseMINN -16.5
Total44.5 → 41.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MINN as a 16.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: MINN won 23–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Below normal · usually 86%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
4 of 944%
Normal range · usually 50%
Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 12.9 against an average line of 16.8; 43.1 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-14.25 | 24–31 | L | O44.25 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-16.5 | 38–3 | W | U45.25 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-19 | 50–7 | W | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-17 | 26–21 | L | O46.5 |
| Very close |  NCST vs  BC2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-18 | 20–21 | L | P41 |
| Very close |  UK vs  VAN2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread |
-17 | 21–24 | L | U45.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread |
-14 | 31–7 | W | U45.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total |
-14 | 7–17 | L | U45.5 |
| Close |  ISU vs  OHIO2022 · Week 3 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-20 | 43–10 | W | O48 |
| Close |  CIN vs  NAVY2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread |
-18.5 | 20–10 | L | U43.5 |
M-OH
MIA
MD
CONN
DUKE
MSU
CMU
UCLA
ASUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 3
44.5 → 41.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Buffalo have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 57% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUFF | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
| MINN | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MINN +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
77° · 6 mph
gusts 14 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BUFF1st game
MINN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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