Ball State @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Purdue

Weather at kickoff70°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

0-0 · Power #133

final

Final

Purdue

0-0 · Power #79

▲ winner

Closing spread

PUR -16.5

✓ PUR W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 23–38 PUR

✓ PUR (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPUR -18.5

ClosePUR -16.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPUR -18.5

2 → BALL

ClosePUR -16.5

2 pts toward Ball State

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PUR -18.5 · closed PUR -16.5 · moved 2 toward BALLmodel PUR -11

model PUR -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 45% (82 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (107 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPUR -18.5

ClosePUR -16.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PUR as a 16.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 9, covered 1, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: PUR won 31–0; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 15.9; 59.1 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs MASS 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-17.5	38–23	L	O51
Close	USF vs UAB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings	-14	35–25	L	O55.5
Close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · close	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Close	M-OH vs MASS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-15.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Close	USA vs ULM 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-17	41–34	L	O51
Close	USU vs NEV 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-14.5	41–24	W	O54.25
Close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · close	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found