Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Ohio State
Closing spread
OSU -1.5
✓ OSU W
Total
46.5
▼ Under · 21 pts
Model before kickoff
TEX 24–27 OSU
✓ OSU (57%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenOSU -2.5
CloseOSU -1.5
Total47.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenOSU -2.5
1 → TEX
CloseOSU -1.5
1 pt toward Texas
Total
Open47.5
▼ 1
Close46.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened OSU -2.5 · closed OSU -1.5 · moved 1 toward TEXmodel OSU -7
model OSU -7
Opened 47.5 · closed 46.5 · moved 1 downmodel 50.5
model 50.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 46% (140 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (151 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenOSU -2.5
CloseOSU -1.5
Total47.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
OSU as a 1.5-point home favorite against TEX, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: OSU won 14–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 21 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 55%
Favorite covered
6 of 967%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 4.8; 47.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-3 | 30–24 | W | O47 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings |
-4 | 15–30 | L | U57 |
| Close |
2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & team ratings |
-7.5 | 42–17 | W | O47 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 14–17 | L | U49 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread |
-3 | 38–35 | P | O52.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread |
-3 | 20–13 | W | U54.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 1 · close · similar total & situation |
-2.5 | 13–23 | L | U46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation |
-6.5 | 31–24 | W | O45 |
| Close |
2024 · Postseason · close · similar total |
-7 | 27–17 | W | U50.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & team ratings |
-8.5 | 31–17 | W | O47 |
MICH
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LOU
IUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Texas have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 40 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 TEX | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
| OSU | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
TEX 0–1 OSU
OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10 2024 | Ohio State 28 @ Texas 14 | OSU -5.5 | OSU W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
OSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
67° · 4 mph
gusts 13 mph · at kickoff
Rest
TEX1st game
OSU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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