Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Southern Miss
Closing spread
MSST -15.5
✓ MSST W
Total
59.5
▼ Under · 51 pts
Model before kickoff
MSST 36–20 USM
✓ MSST (88%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMSST -13.5
CloseMSST -15.5
Total61.5 → 59.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSST -13.5
2 → MSST
CloseMSST -15.5
2 pts toward Mississippi State
Total
Open61.5
▼ 2
Close59.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSST -13.5 · closed MSST -15.5 · moved 2 toward MSSTmodel MSST -19
model MSST -19
Opened 61.5 · closed 59.5 · moved 2 downmodel 56
model 56
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 13.5–17.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 51% (65 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (132 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMSST -13.5
CloseMSST -15.5
Total61.5 → 59.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MSST as a 15.5-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 9, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: MSST won 34–17; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 59.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 84%
Favorite covered
2 of 1020%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 16.2; 59.3 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-13.5 | 45–21 | W | O64.25 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-17 | 29–26 | L | U56.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread |
-17.5 | 23–13 | L | U57.5 |
| Close |  APP @  TXST2022 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings |
-19.5 | 24–36 | L | O54.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-13.75 | 27–24 | L | U60.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-17.5 | 28–20 | L | U52 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-19 | 41–24 | L | O55.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread |
-16.5 | 35–34 | L | O52.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread |
-14.5 | 45–17 | W | O51 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings |
-13.5 | 41–40 | L | O51 |
MEM
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ULMHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Mississippi State ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Mississippi State
2 pts (MSST -13.5 → MSST -15.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
61.5 → 59.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Mississippi State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 1-9 10% | 6-3 67% | 6-3 67% |
 USM | 0-10 0% | 3-6 33% | 4-5 44% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
MSST 1–0 USM
MSST leads · 1 game since 2023 · MSST has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18 2023 | Southern Miss 20 @ Mississippi State 41 | MSST -18 | MSST W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
USM +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
79° · 7 mph
gusts 16 mph · 0.004 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
MSST1st game
USM1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
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