Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Virginia
Closing spread
UVA -13.5
✓ UVA W
Total
54.5
▲ Over · 55 pts
Model before kickoff
CCU 21–34 UVA
✓ UVA (81%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUVA -3.5
CloseUVA -13.5
Total58.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -3.5
10 → UVA
CloseUVA -13.5
10 pts toward Virginia
Total
Open58.5
▼ 4
Close54.5
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -3.5 · closed UVA -13.5 · moved 10 toward UVAmodel UVA -8.5
model UVA -8.5
Opened 58.5 · closed 54.5 · moved 4 downmodel 54.5 matches the line
model 54.5 = line ✓
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 47% (90 games)ⓘ
Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 61% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUVA -3.5
CloseUVA -13.5
Total58.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 1 games most like 
UVA as a 13.5-point home favorite against CCU, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.
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This game: UVA won 48–7; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 55 points went over 54.5, as in 0 of 1.
Favorite won
1 of 1100%
Normal range · usually 79%
Favorite covered
0 of 10%
Normal range · usually 44%
Went over
—
Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 12.5; 49 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›
All 1 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  UNLV vs  NEV2022 · Week 13 · loose |
-12.5 | 27–22 | L | P49 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Virginia ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Virginia
10 pts (UVA -3.5 → UVA -13.5), through the key number 7. · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 4
58.5 → 54.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Coastal Carolina have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 388 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 CCU | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| UVA | 3-7 30% | 6-3 67% | 3-6 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
CCU 0–1 UVA
UVA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UVA has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 2024 | Virginia 43 @ Coastal Carolina 24 | UVA -3.5 | UVA W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
UVA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
75° · 3 mph
gusts 17 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CCU1st game
UVA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Coastal Carolinavs CHSO →
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HAW
ECU @ 
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KENN @ 
WAKE
APP vs 
CLT
GT @ 
COLO
SYR vs 
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MSST @ 
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ODU @ 
IU
MRSH @ 
UGA
ALA @ 
FSU