Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 2:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Indiana
Closing spread
IU -23.5
✓ ODU W
Total
53.5
▼ Under · 41 pts
Model before kickoff
ODU 16–40 IU
✓ IU (95%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenIU -23.5
CloseIU -23.5
Total54.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenIU -23.5
no move
CloseIU -23.5
No change since the open
Total
Open54.5
▼ 1
Close53.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened IU -23.5 · unchangedmodel IU -23.5 matches the line
model IU -23.5 = line ✓
Opened 54.5 · closed 53.5 · moved 1 downmodel 56
model 56
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 45% (52 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenIU -23.5
CloseIU -23.5
Total54.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
IU as a 23.5-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: IU won 27–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 91%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 45%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 49%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.4 against an average line of 24.2; 56.6 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total |
-25 | 48–14 | W | O51.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-23.5 | 31–28 | L | O58 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total |
-24 | 39–17 | L | O52.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-25.5 | 31–0 | W | U50 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total |
-25.5 | 31–45 | L | O53.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-24 | 28–14 | L | U56.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-21.5 | 62–17 | W | O52.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-24.5 | 38–20 | L | O50 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-24 | 42–7 | W | U54 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings |
-24 | 40–14 | W | U58 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Old Dominion have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | |
| 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
76° · 5 mph
gusts 13 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ODU1st game
IU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

