Western Michigan @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Fri, Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Michigan State

Weather at kickoff64°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

0-0 · Power #80

final

Final

Michigan State

0-0 · Power #67

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSU -22.5

✓ WMU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 17–37 MSU

✓ MSU (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -20.5

CloseMSU -22.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSU -20.5

2 → MSU

CloseMSU -22.5

2 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSU -20.5 · closed MSU -22.5 · moved 2 toward MSUmodel MSU -14

model MSU -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–23.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 40% (52 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (129 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -20.5

CloseMSU -22.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSU as a 22.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MSU won 23–6; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.2 against an average line of 21.8; 53.4 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs NMSU 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total	-20	48–0	W	U48.5
Very close	TULN vs UAB 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-22	35–23	L	U58.5
Close	ISU vs ARST 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-20.5	52–7	W	O52
Close	MSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread	-21.75	35–13	W	U54.5
Close	MIZ vs MTSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation	-21	23–19	L	U47.5
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Close	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Close	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75
Close	ARMY vs UAB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings	-27	44–10	W	U55.5
Close	NEB vs LT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-20.5	28–14	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found