Thu, Aug 28, 2025, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Rutgers
Closing spread
RUTG -15.5
✓ OHIO W
Total
53.5
▲ Over · 65 pts
Model before kickoff
OHIO 19–33 RUTG
✓ RUTG (85%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenRUTG -15.5
CloseRUTG -15.5
Total49.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenRUTG -15.5
no move
CloseRUTG -15.5
No change since the open
Total
Open49.5
▲ 4
Close53.5
Up 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened RUTG -15.5 · unchangedmodel RUTG -10
model RUTG -10
Opened 49.5 · closed 53.5 · moved 4 upmodel 52
model 52
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 47% (70 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenRUTG -15.5
CloseRUTG -15.5
Total49.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
RUTG as a 15.5-point home favorite against OHIO, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: RUTG won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 84%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15 against an average line of 15.9; 56.4 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close | 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-17.5 | 41–10 | W | O50 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread |
-17.5 | 45–28 | L | O54.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-17.5 | 41–27 | L | O48 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-18.5 | 38–17 | W | U56.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & team ratings |
-11.5 | 20–33 | L | U55 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-13 | 44–7 | W | P51 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread |
-17.75 | 43–20 | W | O58 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total |
-16.5 | 19–30 | L | U52 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread |
-16.5 | 51–17 | W | O57.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-12.5 | 15–18 | L | U56 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved up 4
49.5 → 53.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Ohio have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 378 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | |
| 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
77° · 9 mph
gusts 23 mph · at kickoff
Rest
OHIO1st game
RUTG1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

