East Carolina @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Thu, Aug 28, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at NC State

Weather at kickoff74°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

East Carolina

0-0 · Power #51

final

Final

NC State

0-0 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

NCSU -13.5

✓ ECU W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 22–35 NCSU

✓ NCSU (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -14.5

CloseNCSU -13.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -14.5

1 → ECU

CloseNCSU -13.5

1 pt toward East Carolina

Total

Open61.5

no move

Close61.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -14.5 · closed NCSU -13.5 · moved 1 toward ECUmodel NCSU -9

model NCSU -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 48% (84 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (146 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -14.5

CloseNCSU -13.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 13.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 24–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 61.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 12.1; 64.6 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSST vs TOL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	17–41	L	O57.5
Very close	UL vs ARST 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-14	55–19	W	O60
Very close	COLO vs STAN 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-13	43–46	L	O59
Very close	UL vs APP 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-10	34–24	P	U64
Very close	MEM vs UNT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-12.75	44–34	L	O68.5
Very close	MEM vs ARST 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation	-14.5	44–32	L	O64
Very close	USA vs LT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total	-13	38–14	W	U59
Very close	APP vs GAST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-9.5	42–17	W	U60.25
Very close	NU vs DUKE 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-10	23–31	L	U56
Close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found