Sat, Aug 23, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Hawai'i
Closing spread
HAW -1.5
✓ HAW W
Total
50.5
▼ Under · 43 pts
Model before kickoff
STAN 24–24 HAW
✓ HAW (51%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSTAN -2.5
CloseHAW -1.5
Total53.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSTAN -2.5
4 → HAW
CloseHAW -1.5
4 pts toward Hawai'i
Total
Open53.5
▼ 3
Close50.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened STAN -2.5 · closed HAW -1.5 · moved 4 toward HAWmodel STAN -4
model STAN -4
Opened 53.5 · closed 50.5 · moved 3 downmodel 48
model 48
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 46% (138 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 40% (85 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSTAN -2.5
CloseHAW -1.5
Total53.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
HAW as a 1.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: HAW won 23–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 55%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 2.6; 56 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  BUFF vs  M-OH2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3 | 24–20 | W | U50.25 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-1 | 28–45 | L | O49.5 |
| Very close |  USU vs  SJSU2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-1 | 35–31 | W | O51 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.75 | 20–34 | L | P54 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 42–18 | W | O51.5 |
| Close |  CMU vs BUFF2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread |
-2.75 | 31–27 | W | O54 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total |
-0.5 | 27–48 | L | O53 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings |
-3 | 14–21 | L | U53.5 |
| Close | SJSU vs  WMU2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation |
-6.5 | 34–6 | W | U48.75 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread |
-2.5 | 31–24 | W | U55.5 |
UTEP
UNLV
ECU
NAVY
FRES
GAST
CCU
ODU
CSUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Hawai'i ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Hawai'i
4 pts (STAN -2.5 → HAW -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 3
53.5 → 50.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Stanford have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 STAN | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
| HAW | 4-6 40% | 5-4 56% | 5-4 56% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
STAN 1–0 HAW
STAN leads · 1 game since 2023 · STAN has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 2023 | Stanford 37 @ Hawai'i 24 | STAN -9.5 | STAN W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
HAW +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
87° · 11 mph
gusts 28 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
STAN1st game
HAW1st game
Even
Travel
STAN 2,399 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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