Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Arizona
Closing spread
ARIZ -15.5
✓ ARIZ W
Total
55.5
▼ Under · 46 pts
Model before kickoff
HAW 18–33 ARIZ
✓ ARIZ (87%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenARIZ -17.5
CloseARIZ -15.5
Total52.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARIZ -17.5
2 → HAW
CloseARIZ -15.5
2 pts toward Hawai'i
Total
Open52.5
▲ 3
Close55.5
Up 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARIZ -17.5 · closed ARIZ -15.5 · moved 2 toward HAWmodel ARIZ -16
model ARIZ -16
Opened 52.5 · closed 55.5 · moved 3 upmodel 51
model 51
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 46% (80 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (115 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenARIZ -17.5
CloseARIZ -15.5
Total52.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ARIZ as a 15.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: ARIZ won 40–6; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 55.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 84%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19 against an average line of 15.2; 58.2 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & situation |
-13.5 | 30–16 | W | U61 |
| Very close | ARIZ vs  COLO2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total |
-17.75 | 43–20 | W | O58 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & situation |
-17.5 | 38–23 | L | O51 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings |
-15.5 | 31–24 | L | U55.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings |
-15 | 37–10 | W | U52 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-16 | 48–38 | L | O55.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total |
-14.5 | 56–30 | W | O59 |
| Close |  UAB vs  GASO2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest |
-11.5 | 35–21 | W | U59 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation |
-17 | 38–14 | W | O48 |
| Close |  FRES vs  WYO2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings |
-14 | 30–0 | W | U50.5 |
CCU
JXST
TOL
MASS
LIB
FIU
CMU
APP
USM
LT
DUKE
NUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Hawai'i ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Hawai'i
2 pts (ARIZ -17.5 → ARIZ -15.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 3
52.5 → 55.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Arizona have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 HAW | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| ARIZ | 2-8 20% | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
The series
HAW 1–6 ARIZ
ARIZ leads · 7 games since 1951 · ARIZ has won the last meeting
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ARIZ +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
94° · 6 mph
gusts 13 mph · at kickoff
Rest
HAW7d
ARIZ1st game
Even
Altitude
HAW +2,362 ft
moderate climb
Schedules, links & other games
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