Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Oregon State
Closing spread
CAL -2.5
✓ CAL W
Total
48.5
▲ Over · 49 pts
Model before kickoff
CAL 28–24 ORST
✓ CAL (60%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenORST -1.5
CloseCAL -2.5
Total50.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenORST -1.5
4 → CAL
CloseCAL -2.5
4 pts toward California
Total
Open50.5
▼ 2
Close48.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ORST -1.5 · closed CAL -2.5 · moved 4 toward CALmodel CAL -7.5
model CAL -7.5
Opened 50.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 2 downmodel 51.5
model 51.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 46% (156 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (96 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenORST -1.5
CloseCAL -2.5
Total50.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
CAL as a 2.5-point road favorite at ORST, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: CAL won 34–15; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 56%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 4.6; 47.2 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-5 | 20–9 | W | U49.25 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread |
-3 | 30–18 | W | O47 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total |
-3.75 | 29–0 | W | U48 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 17–21 | L | U45 |
| Close |  UAB @  LIB2022 · Week 2 · close · similar team ratings & total |
-6 | 14–21 | L | U50 |
| Close | LIB @  ODU2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation |
-3.5 | 38–24 | W | O47.5 |
| Close |  TLSA @  WYO2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & total |
-6.5 | 37–40 | L | O46 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread |
-2.5 | 48–22 | W | O48.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation |
-6 | 45–20 | W | O45.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation |
-6.5 | 19–0 | W | U42 |
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ARMYHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight California ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward California
4 pts (ORST -1.5 → CAL -2.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
50.5 → 48.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
California have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 383 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
 ORST | 3-7 30% | 3-6 33% | 5-4 56% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
CAL 1–1 ORST
Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · CAL has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 2024 | Oregon State 7 @ California 44 | CAL -11.5 | CAL W |
| Oct 7 2023 | Oregon State 52 @ California 40 | ORST -10 | ORST W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ORST +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
68° · 3 mph
gusts 7 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CAL1st game
ORST1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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